The Home Stretch

The Yankees took three-of-four from Boston, but probably also saw their chances at the division title disappear. A 3.5-game lead with only 26 games to go sounds doable, but is a significant advantage. In fact, Baseball Prospectus sees the Red Sox as 77% favorites to win the AL East.

The good news is the Yankees have their own 3.5-game lead in the wild card race. They have nine games against their immediate pursuers, Baltimore and Minnesota, and a favorable schedule outside of that. Their playoff odds sit at 94% today and it is clear that anything less than a wild card appearance would be a disappointing end to a surprising season.

There are a few questions the Yankee need to find answers to over the next few weeks.

1- What’s the lineup? Hicks is back on the DL. Holliday is back and Todd Frazier hasn’t done much with the bat, last night being an exception. Meanwhile, Chase Headley is hitting well. With Bird back at first, it makes sense to bench Frazier and let Headley play third, but the Yankees might take advantage of an expanded bench to matchup strategically each game and at bat.

2- Can Chapman be turned around? Without Chapman, the Yankees still have a great bullpen, but if they can somehow fix him, it would be incredibly dominant. With the playoffs littered with days off, the Yankees could shorten every game to five innings from their starters with the sextet of Betances, Chapman, Green, Kahnle, Robertson, and Warren. That could be huge.

3- Assuming the Yankees are a wild card team, who gets the start? They currently have four starters clicking and while Severino has clearly been the best, would the Yankees prefer Tanaka’s experience in that spot? The good news is that they have choices.

26 games to go. September should be fun.