Managing Mystery

I have no problem with what Joe Girardi did in the tenth inning today, my problem is with what he did in the ninth inning. Let’s go through it.

The Yankees entered the seventh trailing 4-2. Girardi went to his usual guy for the seventh, Tyler Clippard. They entered the eight in the same sport and Girardi did the same thing, calling on Betances. They entered the ninth in the same spot and here is where Girardi went off the rails bringing in Mitchell.

He had already used Holder, Clippard, and Betances, and Warren was not available, so there are three pitchers left in the pen- Chapman, Layne, and Mitchell. Choosing Mitchell is the absolute wrong choice of the three. Pick Chapman, your best choice for a clean inning, and you hope to score two in the ninth and tie things. Choose Layne, a guy who can only go one inning, and hope he gets you through the ninth still trailing by two. But choosing Mitchell, your only long guy in the pen locks you into a quandary. If you tie the game, but don’t win it, what then?

Girardi correctly determined that Chapman was the best chance to get through the tenth and have a chance to win it. The problem was, he had already used Mitchell and Layne couldn’t give him multiple innings. So he got creative and moved Mitchell to first. That allowed him to use Mitchell as a pitcher again later in the game, but cost him his DH, and current first baseman, Chris Carter. It was a creative solution, but one he could have avoided by thinking a couple of steps ahead in the 9th inning.

But in the bigger picture, the Yankees are 15-8. That’s about as great a start as anyone could have imagined.

A Fortunate Flip

I watched tonight as the Yankees dug a 9-1 hole. I stopped watching there and turned to other things. So I was shocked when I pulled the game up on my IPad later that night and found out that it was tied at 11 and the Yankees had runners on in the tenth.

A quick flip of the channel gave me one of the greatest rewards I have had as a Yankee fan. Holliday parked it, and we celebrated our best win of the season.

A Pitching Clinic-UPDATED

It finally happened, the Yankees and Red Sox played a game in under three hours. All it took were two of the best pitched games you will see.

Chris Sale was better, at least until his manager made him try the 9th inning when he was looking a bit gassed in the 8th, But Tanaka got the win because he kept the Red Sox off balance all night. Their biggest threat was a runner on second with 1 out, and Tanaka retired the final 14-straight.

So the Yankees take the abbreviated series and now have the first place Orioles coming for a visit. It should be an exciting weekend.

UPDATE Never had heard this used before, but a complete game shutout that takes under 100 pitches, is apparently called a “Maddox” in honor of the great Greg Maddox. Tanaka got earned that tonight.

All Rise

Aaron Judge had a pretty good 25th-birthday. He hit a pretty nice opposite-field homer and added a great catch diving into the stands. Chapman came close to throwing it all away, but the Yankees prevailed 3-1.

I want to gripe about replay. Judge’s play in the stands was an easy call to miss as an umpire, but also an easy call to reverse upon viewing a replay. For whatever reason, it took a long time for the MLB replay crew to reach the right conclusion.

Here’s my idea, have a lot of people watching the games in the “pod” in NYC and reviewing any close play before a replay challenge is made. Yes, you would be reviewing calls that may never be challenged, but hopefully you would cut down on the interminable time it takes to review and adjudicate a call which seems to be an easy one on replay. If MLB is serious about speeding up games, they have to speed up replay.

Lastly, a word about Luis Severino. A night like tonight shows you why the Yankees think he can be a frontline starter. His development will be one of the most important things to watch in 2017.

A Bad Look for the Red Sox

Dustin Pedroia is right, the Red Sox certainly did mishandle the Manny Machado situation in Baltimore this past weekend.   Specifically, he threw his teammate and manager under the bus.

While I don’t necessarily expect him to approve of a retaliatory pitch against the Baltimore slugger, I do expect him to act as though he approves of it.

There’s no doubt Pedroia is one of the clubhouse leaders for the Red Sox and his word carries some weight, but to publicly denounce Matt Barnes’ action and tell Machado that he, Pedroia, had nothing to do with it, is a very bad look and feel for this team.  Of course, all of those concerned came out today and told us all was well, but if I’m Barnes, I’d be steamed.  Farrell?  Who cares what he says, he is the biggest polisher of garbage there is.

This is one of those make or break moments for a clubhouse.  If a division occurs, you can certainly point to this moment.  Pedroia isn’t necessarily one to care what others think, so if he didn’t convince Barnes and perhaps others that his intent wasn’t to alienate, this could be trouble.

 

Big Series?-UPDATED

The Yankees head to Fenway tonight for a three-game set with the two teams separated by just a half-game in the standings. So, you could make the case this is a big series. But, it is April. And no matter what happens, I am pretty sure that the team that loses his series will be able to recover over the final 144 games. So, I would say no, but I think there are some very interesting things to watch.

1- Judge and Bird at Fenway. Bird has played thre before, but he is off to a bad start and needs to get going. Judge is tailor-made to do damage at Fenway. The most impressive power I have ever seen there was the 1999 home run derby when McGwire was hitting moon shots over the monster. (sidenote, Andy and I were there in person and may have started a rumor that the state police were closing the Mass Pike because they were afraid balls would hit cars). Judge has some amazing power and could send a ball well into the night.

2. Sale versus Tanaka. Andy is ready to build a statue of Sale on Yawkey Way And Sale has dominated the Yankees in his career. Meanwhile, Tanaka has scuffled against Boston. Will this be the mismatch it appears to be?

3- How does Girardi manage these games? Is he going to treat them as bigger than a usual April game? By using Betances and Chapman for multiple innings maybe? Or will the fact that the Yankees have first place Baltimore on the schedule next, keep these at April intensity?

4- Severino in Fenway, part 2. He got shellacked there in his first try last August. Can he do better this time?

5- Which Yankee will Matt Barnes unnecessarily head hunt? I kid, I kid. Enjoy the games!

UPDATE We have a rain out, so we are going to have to wait for the series to start, and only see two games this week. The game will be made up as part of a day-night doubleheader on July 16th.

Sale

Red Sox news has been scarce on this site, my apologies, life and lack of time has gotten in the way.

That said, I feel compelled to comment on new Red Sox starter, Chris Sale.  Keeping in mind this is a very short sample size, Sale, in his first 4 starts, has pitched 29.2 IP, allowed 15 hits, 6 bb,  3 ER with 42 K’s.  His starts are must-see TV and are reminiscent of Pedro Martinez’s time in Boston.  Sure the Red Sox have had good pitching since Martinez but none has been this dominant and dynamic.  And please don’t accuse me of comparing him to Martinez’s overall time in Boston, but so far he has been that exciting.

Of course, with today’s blown save by Craig Kimbrel, Sale only has a 1-1 record on the year.

Thank goodness for Sale, as the other Red Sox starters have posted the following ERAs:

Porcello – 5.32

Wright – 8.36

Rodriguez – 4.76

Pomeranz – 5.23

Johnson – 7.20

What’s that old saying, “Sale and then pray for rain?”  Has there every been 4 rain postponed games in a row for one team?  That’s how bad it is with this rotation.

The Big Picture

At 1-4, we thought disaster was imminent. At 9-5, we can dream of October baseball. But I think the rational fan realizes this is the likely future- they will lose a bunch, they will win a bunch, and they most likely end up around 85-wins. Yes, you can make more optimistic arguments and more pessimistic ones, but let’s move beyond that and focus on the critical issues about this season. There are four big issues the Yankees need to solve between now and the end of the season-whenever that is.

1- What is the 2018 rotation?
If you buy the premise that the next championship is in the future, you need to think about this. Tanaka can opt out. Pineda and Sabathia are going to be free agents. That means the Yankees have to find solid internal replacements in 2017. Are those Severino and Montgomery? We shall see, but if not, how long can they afford to wait before trying out someone else? And if Sabathia or Pineda scuffles, how long is the leash?

2- Who are Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, and Greg Bird? At their best, they are the middle of the lineup for years to come. But none of them have shown that ability over even half a season. Can they produce at those levels for a full year?

3- Will the prospects turn into players? Some are off to great starts, some are not, but this is a critical year for a number of the Yankees prospects. Can Frazier make it to the Bronx? Can Sheffield throw himself into contention for a 2018 roster spot? Will Mateo rebound from a rough 2016? Is Andujar ready to challenge at 3B? These performances will dictate the Yankees moves at the deadline and in the offseason.

4- Who is the manager and GM of the 2018 Yankees? I suspect that both Girardi and Cashman will be back, but what if this team loses 90 games? Then what?

So enjoy the wins, and try not to get too down about the losses. The big picture is that 2017 is about building a better future.

Opening Day!

It’s finally here, the start of the baseball season. And for the first time in ages, the Yankees will be starting a lineup with more guys in their 20’s than any other decade.

That’s the reason for optimism if you are a Yankees fan. There will be frustrating times, but this lineup should be significantly better than last year’s. Bird and Sanchez are much better bets now than Teixeira and A-Rod were in 2016. Judge, Didi, and Castro are all ascending, while Gardner and Headley are not declining significantly- yet. The biggest questions are Ellsbury and Holliday. Ellsbury because of bad performance and Holliday because of age. I expect Holliday to be fine, while Ellsbury continues to haunt the Yankees.

But the reason for pessimism is the other side of the ball. The Yankee rotation is a mess. It starts with an ace, Tanaka, but goes way downhill from there. Sabathia, a second starter only in name, is years away from his peak. Pineda has never put together a full season that matches his ability. Severino is an unknown and the Yankees haven’t named a fifth starter yet. Add it all up, and most days will see the Yankees turning to the bullpen early.

Luckily, that’s a strength. They have a quartet of relievers they can trust and plenty of intriguing arms behind that. This is a team that should dominate close games. But the rotation will stress the bullpen and the Yankees have to hope that Severino becomes a frontline stater while the farm system provides help.

Add it all up and you have a .500 team. They will flirt with both contention and irrelevance, but in the end I think they squeak out an 83-79 record that puts them in third in the division and out of the playoffs.