The Yankees have shocked me, and I think a lot of people, by trading Andrew Miller to Cleveland this morning. Now that we can see they are clearly sellers, what do they do from here? I would say the focus needs to be on clearing out the roster of parts they won’t use in the future and getting good looks at guys they want to use in the future. So, here are the guys that need to go.

Beltran tops the list because he is hitting well enough that the Yankees wouldn’t want to lose him without receiving a draft pick back. The problem is that offering him arbitration is risky because he might accept it and be on the team next year at around $17-million. The Yankees can’t let that happen, so they need to move him now.

Nova is next because he isn’t good enough for a qualifying offer and the Yankees are clearly ready to move on from him. Trade him for a bag of balls or release him. They need to use his spot in the rotation for looking at guys like Severino, Green and Cessna.

A-Rod needs to go because rebuilding teams don’t waste spots on 41-year old, lefty-hitting DH’s. If they want him to fake an injury until September 1st when rosters expand, that’s fine to, but he can’t be on the active roster anymore.

Those are the “big 3” the following guys should be moved if possible.

Sabathia- I don’t know if it is possible to trade him, but the Yankees should try to get him out the door.

McCann- Sanchez is out of options next year and obviously the future at catcher. If Atlanta is interested in a reunion, the Yankees should try to make that happen.

Gardner- I would rather trade Ellsbury, but realistically that isn’t happening. The Yankees are suddenly getting flush with outfielders, moving Beltran will help, but they need to make more room to look at other guys.

The Yankees also need to look at some of their younger players in more depth.

I know Aarron Hicks has been abysmal, but the Yankees have to keep trying him for now and seeing if he is worth keeping a roster spot for. They should also get guys like Mason Williams and Ben Gamel back on the active roster to see what they can do. Severino should be back in the rotation and ideally Green or Cessna too. Refsnyder plays somewhere almost every day and Sanchez is brought up to start learning the bigs for real. When September rolls around, Judge makes his debut. The Yankees have 59 games left to figure out the best team to put out there in 2017. No time to waste!


The Yankee have apparently acquired Tyler Clippard for Vincente Campos  Clippard was a Yankee prospect back in 2007 and got sent to Washington for Jonathon Albaladejo in a trade that did not work out for the Yankees because Clippard became a pretty good bullpen arm and Albie didn’t  He is signed through next year, but gives them a veteran arm in a bullpen that is pretty much Betances and Warren with a bunch of rookies  Campos was the second piece of the Pineda trade and has been hit by injuries, but has made it to AAA this year.  Problem with him is that he is probably out of options and would need to stick on the roster next season. Still not sure I would have traded him for Clippard but these are the Yankees and we can’t expect them to abandon all of their tendencies in a week.



We’re Selling!-UPDATED

Not much in the way of details yet, but multiple sources are reporting the Yankees have sent Andrew Miller to Cleveland. I’ll update as details leak out.

8:52AM- This is complicated by the fact that Cleveland apparently has also traded for Lucroy.

8:53- Jon Heyman speculates that since the Yankees are in sell mode “Beltran, Pineda, Eovaldi, Nova and others” could be in play. And that “Yankee higher-ups made the call to sell while watching team lose 2 straight….”

8:54- Seems like the two prospects are Clint Frazier (OF) and Justus Sheffield (LHP)

8:59- Frazier is ranked 24th in MLB and Sheffield 95th.

9:00- Frazier just got to AAA Columbus, remember that place? He hit .276/.356/.469 in AA with 13 steals. He is a righty and has played all three outfield positions this year.

9:02- Ken Rosenthal reports that the trade is the two names above plus two more.

9:04- Sheffield is a lefty who is currently in A-ball. 95 innings, 93 K’s, 40 walks. Big stuff, needs to learn to control it.

9:09- Heyman reports that some in Yankees organization see Frazier as “the next Mike Trout”. That is a crazy thing to say publicly.

9:10- Joel Sherman reports that two other players are pitchers.

9:11- Sherman adds that teams want the Yankees to include money in any Beltran trade and the Yankees won’t do that. I get that, but the Yankees need to consider the end game here. Offering Beltran arbitration, to ensure you get a draft pick, is a risky bet since he might accept because he loves playing here and might want to retire after next year. That means you either let him walk away at the end of the year for nothing or risk having him under contract next season. Under those scenarios, you have to trade him now.

I’m just going to add that this is a plunge into the unknown and therefore scary, but at the same time exciting. The Yankees are showing that they get it! They are going to actually rebuild. (Watch them send all these prospects off in a trade for some overpaid star now)

9:15- Joel Sherman points out that Baseball America had Frazier, Torres, and Sheffield ranked 21,27, and 69 in their midseason rankings. By my count this trade gives the Yankees 7 guys on the top-100 list- Frazier, Torres, Mateo, Judge, Sanchez, Rutherford, and Sheffield.

9:18- Both Rosenthal and Sherman speculate that this trade could signal the end of the line for A-Rod as a Yankee.

I have to agree with them. What’s the point of keeping him now?

9:24- Heyman backing off of earlier Mike Trout comparison, now says the Yankees absolutely love Frazier.

9:25-Sherman reports Yankees also getting two bullpen prospects- Ben Heller and JP Freyereisen in the trade.

9:32- Just a reminder, the trade deadline is tomorrow because today is a Sunday.

9:45- Yankees PR just officially announced the trade.

Brian’s Song

I do not envy Brian Cashman this week. He made a great trade, but he needs to make more, and indications are that ownership isn’t on board with that.

I understand Hal’s reluctance. Since they bottomed out at 9-17, the Yankees have gone 43-32, that’s almost half a season of playing at a 92-win clip. The problem is that the record is a mirage. Look at their runs scored vs. runs allowed. Even while playing .573 baseball, they only scored 4 more runs than they allowed. This is not a team that can win 92 games. It is much more likely that this is a team that can win 82 games. And their playoff odds, currently 11.1%, reflect that. Brian has to somehow convince Hal that the season is lost and the best thing the Yankees can do is cash in on some of their current assets. Primarily, that means Beltran and Nova must go now. But, it also means they need to listen on everyone. You don’t trade Miller unless a team is offering more than you got from the Cubs for Chapman, but you listen to everything and see what can happen.

The problem is that second wild card is out there, not too far away, tempting Hal and Randy to chase it. If they ultimately determine the Yankees need to stay in the race, that will be a missed opportunity, but one definitely mitigated by the Chapman trade. What I hope for is a bad weekend of baseball leads the Yankees to realize the futility of chasing the title this year and puts them into full sell mode. Beltran and Nova get moved, but more than that, the Yankees really commit to tearing it down for now. Done correctly, they can be back and much, much better very soon. Right now I don’t think that is going to happen. I think it is far more likely that they simply don’t trade anyone. I hope I am wrong.

A Great Start-UPDATED

Jon Heyman is reporting that the Cubs have acquired Chapman from the Yankees for three or four players- Adam Warren, Gleyber Torres, Billy McKinney, and “perhaps” an additional player.

Let’s dispense with the guy we know. Adam Warren is having a bad season in Chicago, but we know exactly what role he is going to fill in New York- 7th inning guy. If he can pitch like he did last year, the Yankees will be happy to have him back. And remember, he is still only 28 and under team control through 2018. We could see him back in the starting rotation down the road as well.

The really great part of this trade for the Yankees are the two prospects Torres and McKinney, ranked #1 and #5 in the Cubs’ system and both in the Top-100 of all prospects by MLB. Some Yankees fans seem upset that they Torres is a shortstop, but shortstops are the Swiss Army Knives of baseball. If you are good enough to play short, you can probably handle almost any other position. McKinney is a left-handed hitting outfielder who profiles as a left fielder in the future. He doesn’t have the speed of Brett Gardner, but is pretty similar in every other way.

So the Yankees add two very good prospects and Warren, in exchange for a few months of Chapman. This is the type of deal a team would only make if it was trying to break a string of 107 years without a championship, because it is a serious overpay. Good for the Yankees for getting them to do it.

However, this can only be the start of this process. It concerns me that Joel Sherman has tweeted about the Yankees trying to sign Chapman to a contract extension. That is the last thing this team should have done, and if it is true, it is an indication that ownership is still dithering about this rebuild. That needs to stop and the Yankees need to put Beltran and many others on the block next. They probably won’t come close to this haul, but the more prospects the better at this point.

UPDATED 3:35PM- Yankees just officially announced the deal. It is as quoted above with the addition of Rashad Crawford, a lottery ticket type player, to the deal.

UPDATED 5:35PM- Prospect lists are notoriously flaky, but most assessments I read agree with this one. Torres is now the Yankees best prospect and McKinney is their 4th-best.

Time To Sell

Give the Yankees credit. No matter what happens today, they will complete this four-series stretch against top teams with a winning record. In fact, if they win today, they will complete this stretch with a record of 9-5. That’s pretty impressive.

The problem is that it doesn’t wipe away the mediocrity of the first three months, or the reality of where the team current,y stands- 7.5 out of the division and 4.5 out of a wild card spot. And while some might seize upon the wild card as a legitimate playoff route, there are three other teams closer to that spot than the Yankees. Add it all up and Baseball Prospectus puts the Yankees playoff odds at 6.4%. That translates to a chance of about 1-in-15. And while predictions are liable to be wrong, even if you halve their odds, they are still long, long, shots to make it.

Plus, they are facing a great opportunity. They have a combination of potential free agents, and desirable commodities, that could net them a significant return on the trade market.

Start with Chapman who could transform a playoff contender  Add in Beltran who is having a much better season than I thought he would.  But don’t stop there.  If the Yankee are going to sell, they need to do it correctly.  They need to look at everything on the roster and think about whether or not it will still be useful when they can contend again. Realistically, that is 2018 at the earliest, so guys like McCann, Gardner, Eovaldi, Pineda, and Tanaka must be considered in deals.

Done correctly, the Yankees can build up a solid arsenal of future assets.  They can get significantly younger and put themselves in a position  where free agency is used to supplement, not build, a pennant contender.

It’s been 27 years since the Yankees were truly sellers. Back then they waited too long to rebuild, constantly trying to throw new players on top of a bad foundation. The Yankees have a chance to avoid the fate now by selling and taking advantage of the opportunities presented to them this week. Let’s hope they do so.

A Weird Weekend

I won’t go so far as to say I am actually rooting for Boston to win this weekend, but I am not rooting for the Yankees to win either. I want this series and the upcoming ones to remove any doubt in any head that thinks this is a contending team and let Brian Cashman get to work selling like Eddie Murphy and Dan Akroyd in Trading Places.

I have to apologize to any readers expecting me to analyze these games this weekend, I haven’t watched a single pitch.  I can’t, I’m too depressed.  If the Yankees win right now it will provide short-term gain and long-term pain, so I can’t root for it. We need to accept our fate and plan for the future. I will outline my thoughts on that soon, but for now I am watching things like the Cubs-Rangers instead of the Yankees. In short, I feel yucky



We’re Not Watching

I adore baseball.  I love going to games and I love watching them. It is quite simply my favorite sport. As a kid, that adoration reached its apogee with the All-Star Game. While I watched the World Series religiously, no single game was ever more fiercely contested, with as much star power,  than the All-Star Games that I grew up on. Sadly, those are a distant memory.

Interleague play was bad enough, but I think it was the sight of Bob Brenly and Joe Torre negotiating an ASG tie that forever soured me on the game. What happened to the days when players went all out to win this game?  When did we have to rely on stupid ideas like home field being determined by it, to want to watch this game?

At some point the players stopped caring about this game. They worried too much about injury and not enough about entertaining the fans. Jose Fernandez took a lot of heat Monday for saying he would groove fastballs to David Oritz, but why?  This was Ortiz’s last ASG and why wouldn’t a baseball fan want to see him go deep in an exhibition game?  Fernandez was just open to giving the fans what they wanted and I can’t fault him one bit. The problem is baseball doesn’t agree. They want to use the phony home field gimmick to make us care. It doesn’t.

I’m not alone in feeling this  Look at the TV ratings and the game is bleeding away viewers. (Last night’s ratings just came in as I was finishing this, a record low- 8.7 million viewers)  I don’t know what the fix is, but I would love to care about this game again.  I really miss it


At The Break

Yesterday’s game was the perfect metaphor for me in regards to the season so far. The Yankees looked great at times, they looked terrible at times, and it wasn’t overly enjoyable. But, the Yankees won and hit the break at 44-44, 7.5 behind the Orioles, and 5.5 out of a wild card spot. That really doesn’t tell the full story though. For one thing, they are 10th in the AL in wins, so 9 teams are better than them. For another, their run differential sits at -34, and even that may be overstating their performance as advanced stats suggest it should be worse with the Yankees record about three-games below .500. 

Most prediction sites give the Yankees around an 8% chance of even making the playoffs, so hopefully this past weekend’s burst of success will not distract ownership from what they need to do- sell, sell, sell. The danger is that the Yankees could come out of the break and take say four-of-six from the Red Sox and Orioles. That would make the sell case a much harder one to implement. I will try to outline my plan for selling and going forward in the next few days.

Halfway There

The Yankees reach the halfway point in the schedule at 40-41 with a -30 run differential and only six players-Beltran, Betances, Chapman, Miller,  Sabathia, and Tanaka- truly having good seasons. Because of the overall mediocrity of the AL, they are only 3.5-games out of a wild card spot. However, picturing this team in the playoffs requires a big imagination.

That’s why the Yankees need to make sure that they operate over the next few weeks using the principal of doing no harm. They must resist the temptation to add pieces to a flawed foundation, or to subtract from their future assets. That doesn’t mean they go into full sell mode now, it’s still a bit too early for that, just that they don’t become buyers.

The next 20 games are all against opponents better than .500, and includes some of the best teams in the league. Unless something really surprising happens, this stretch should prove to everyone that this team isn’t a legitimate contender and the best course of action is to build for the future. And since it ends right before the trade deadline, the Yankees can open for business when it concludes.