15 Sep 2015
Last night’s win contained so many unexpected events it is hard to remember all of them, but let’s try.
Start with Sabathia pitching like he used to. That was certainly unexpected. Then Ackley leading off the 9th with a hit, that wasn’t something you expected. Or Ellsbury following that up with a GIDP. Or Gardner getting a hit and stealing only his fourth base of the second half. Ok, you probably expected Alex to get that hit, but I guarantee you were not expecting Slade Heathcott to hit a three-run homer on the first pitch.
Baseball-Reference has an win probability matrix for each game as it goes along. At the start of the 9th inning, the Yankees had a 16% chance of winning. That jumped to 27% when Ackley got on base, but plunged to 3% when Ellsbury his into the DP. Gardner’s hit put it back up to 8%, but even A-Rod’s game-tying hit left them below 50% (47%)
Bu as Joe Torre used to say, “momentum is tomorrow’s starting pitcher”, and the Yankees are turning to their bullpen and Adam Warren to keep things going. Three weeks from today is the AL Wild Card game, 19 games to go.