Follow The Payroll

Want a quick explanation for the Yankees lack of moves? Look at the payroll.

Over the past few years the Yankees have gone as high as $228-million in Opening Day payroll and as “low” as $197-million. They usually come in around $210-million. With the Andrew Miller signing, the Yankees are at $180-million. They are projected to pay about $9-milion more in arbitration, so let’s say they are at $190-million. But that also only counts 17 players. So let’s add 8 more players at 500k each and we are now at $194-million, which we will call $195 to account for rounding.

So if you go with the max Opening Day payroll, the Yankees have $33-million left to spend. If you go with the average, they have $15-million. And if you go with the lowest, we are down to $2-million. And it is worth noting, this situation doesn’t get better next year as every big contract is still on the books and guys continue to advance and enter ¬†arbitration. 2017 is when the payroll is suddenly purged. Teixeira, Sabathia, Beltran, and Prado come off the payroll and reduce it by $74-milion. In 2018 A-Rod (finally) is gone. And remember, every dollar the Yankees spend over $189-million costs them a 50% penalty in terms of the luxury tax. So Brandon McCarthy’s four-year/$48-million deal would have cost them $16-million next year.

So I would suspect the Yankees to continue on the path they have since their splurge last offseason. Yes, they signed Miller, but he ended up costing less than Robertson and got them a draft pick. They might bring back Headley, but I doubt they go higher than 3/39 for him. They will probably shop in the bargain bin of starting pitchers and hope to catch some lightning in a bottle like they did with Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia a few years ago.

It will make a part of the fan base very unhappy, but it is the right approach. If things come together, they can definitely contend for a playoff spot. If they don’t, they will be mediocre or worse. But I still think it is a better approach than trying to spend their way out of where they currently are.