TwitterHere We Go
17 Oct 2012
The first A-Rod trade story has been posted. Interestingly, the author is Keith Olbermann, a guy who hasn’t been a sports reporter in a long time, but certainly has connections in the Yankees organization.
The Yankees immediately denied that they have talked to the Marlins, but I find this rumor somewhat plausible. Miami is the one logical place for A-Rod to go. He is from there and he would draw people to the ballpark. If the Marlins could get him heavily-subsidized by the Yankees I think they would do it.
I also think Alex would do it. For one, he would escape New York can play in a place he loves with a much more relaxed atmosphere. Also, he would save some money as Florida has no state income tax.
But, I don’t believe the Yankees are so desperate to get rid of him that they would be willing to pay almost all of his salary. For one thing, that would be a stupid move as A-Rod is still slightly above average with the bat and a good defender. For another, how would giving A-Rod away benefit the Yankees? They are still on the hook for his salary. And, the luxury tax calculation is based on the average annual value, so he will represent a hit of $27.5 million per year from 2014-2017, even though he will earn $24 million less than that amount in those years. If they are going to pull the trigger on an A-Rod deal they either need pieces back than can help or some salary relief. Otherwise, it just doesn’t make any sense.
The question the Yankees have to as themselves is if this is situation can only get worse. Is A-Rod inevitably going to decline and therefore become more and more of a liability? My eyes tell me yes and a recent projection run on him seems to confirm that.
Projections (BA/OBP/SLG, HR)
2013: .256/.339/.425, 16
2014: .251/.328/.405, 13
2015: .249/.317/.393, 11
2016: .241/.302/.364, 9
2017: .238/.292/.352, 8
This year the average AL thirdbaseman put up a line of .261/.320/.420, so Alex would be just above it in 2013 and starting to dip below it in 2014. This will be quite an offseason. Hopefully, we can avoid it for a few more days.
Oct 17, 2012 @ 19:25:45
Peter,
Are you sure about your assertion that Alex would still be a salary burden to the Yankees in the tax cap calculations if he were traded? It was my understanding that the contract could be assigned in such a way that his salary becomes a “burden” to his new team, which team would assume the burden by gratefully receiving a lump sum cash payment. This could be readily accomplished by creating a new contract which replaces his existing one. In effect, they are transferring his old contract along with cash considerations so that the new team can create a new contract. This was what I was thinking and assuming when I first mini-ranted about sending A-Rod and a barrel full of Steinbrenner Family cash to another team.
If my contract assumptions were wrong, then moving him provides only 25 man roster relief …
- complete tangent: Typepad is struggling to work with IE 9 after the lastest MSFT security updates for some people. Have to use another browser to acquire the credentials to post. (sigh)
Oct 17, 2012 @ 20:55:14
Mitchell
95% sure. Whatever cash the Yankees send to the team that trades for him counts as payroll that the Yankees spend. For example, AJ Burnett counts for $11 million on the Yankees payroll this year and will count as $8.5 million next year.
Now, I am not sure if they could do the contract swap you suggested, that’s beyond my understanding of the CBA.
And about Type Pad, it’s a Type Pad issue, not your browser. They are apparently working on it.
(This comment has been edited to remove a dumb idea of mine. )
Oct 18, 2012 @ 08:17:54
d “throw in” Cano with A-Rod to get the deal done, kinda like Gonzo to the Dodgers.
Seriously, might actually have to give something up worth something in the future to rid yourselves of A-Rod. Money might not be enough anymore.
Oct 18, 2012 @ 12:00:03
BL
I don’t think it has come to that, nor should it.
It’s hard to do, but we need to separate the idea that A-Rod is vastly overpaid (he is) from the idea that he is a bad player (he isn’t). The Yankees need to get some sort of value back if they trade him, either in less payroll for the future or players who could help this team in the future. They need to do at least another AJ Burnett trade. There the Yankees paid 60% of his remaining salary for two nothing prospects. Translate that to A-Rod and the acquiring team would be on the hook for about $9-million a year.
Oct 18, 2012 @ 18:06:29
This is a test. Feel free to delete it. Testing for Typepad Support.