That’s An Ace
12 Oct 2012
CC Sabathia has been everything the Yankees could have hoped for and tonight he may have pitched his best game as a Yankee. A complete game with only four hits and 9 K’s in the do-or-die game of the ALDS is pretty special.
Give a tip of the cap to Buck Showalter and his Orioles. They gave the Yankees everything they could handle and I firmly believe that none of the Yankees’ success would have happened if Buck hadn’t molded them in the early 90′s. I am sure it is of no comfort for him now, but he was the guy who started Jeter, Rivera and many others on the road to success.
Now the Yankees have the advantage of staying home for the start of the ALCS, but they are at a big disadvantage pitching wise. We know Pettitte will go in Game 1 on regular rest. After that, the Yankees have some tough choices to make. Kuroda could go in Game 2, but he would be on short rest, he threw 105 pitches Wednesday. Otherwise, Girardi has to pitch someone other than the four guys who started in the ALDS (Lowe or Phelps? Girardi wouldn’t commit to anything in the postgame other than Pettitte tomorrow and he specifically refused to answer when asked what his options besides Kuroda would be for Game 2) And Game 3 isn’t any easier. They will face Verlander, that’s a definite. They could either pitch Sabathia on short rest, or Hughes or Kuroda on full rest. Something tells me this will come down to the disposition of the series after the first two games because the Game 3 starter is in line to pitch Game 7.
On the plus side, Sabathia’s gem tonight kept the bullpen rested. That is huge because Soriano and Robertson had each thrown three innings over the last two nights. Now, the Yankees can enter the ALCS with a relatively rested bullpen.
Here are some questions, in no particular order, the Yankees have to figure out in the next 23 hours.
1- Is Joba healthy enough to pitch in the ALCS and if not, who is his replacement?
2- What are they going to do with A-Rod? The Tigers have only righty starters. I suspect A-Rod gets into the lineup tomorrow. (Chavez was 0-for-3 with 2 K’s tonight.) In fact, I would bet he gets Games 1 and 2, but if his struggles continue, he will be back on the bench in Game 3 against Verlander.
3- Considering Swisher and Cano continued to struggle, but Granderson looked a lot better so is another lineup shakeup possible?
4- And obviously the Game 2 starter. That decision will probably also impact the bench because if the Yankees decide to use someone other than Kuroda in Game 2, I could see them adding another pitcher.
Whew, what a series. And now no rest before the next one. See you tomorrow!
UPDATE 11:20PM The Tigers have released their ALCS rotation: Fister, Sanchez, Verlander, Scherzer, Fister, Sanchez, Verlander
FIster has a 5.18 ERA against the Yankees in four career starts, but he pitched better in 2012 against them. The Yankees destroyed Sanzhez the one time they saw him this year and they also shellacked him in his one start against them as a Marlin. Verlander is deadly. Scherzer had pitched well against the Yankees until his one start this year when they hit him pretty well.
UPDATE 12:29AM The Cardinals just pulled off another amazing comeback, down 6-0 at one point and 7-5 in the 9th, they win 9-7. That means two things. 1- The Yankees are the only one of four home teams to win Game 5 at home. 2- The last three World Series winners are still alive in the playoffs. MLB is having a pretty good month, aren’t they?

Twitter

Oct 13, 2012 @ 00:09:42
I suppose if the Yankees win Game 1, they might be tempted to start Phelps in Game 2, with a quick move to Lowe if the game looks to be getting out of hand. If they lose Game 1, I think they pitch Kuroda on short rest. They obviously don’t want to face Verlander down two games to none.
Completely unrelated question (if you’ll indulge me) . . .
Suppose the Yankees and Red Sox were to finish the season tied for the best record in the league (let’s say 100-62). The AL Central winner goes 98-64, the AL West winner goes 97-65 and the second Wild Card winner goes 95-67. If I understand correctly, here’s what could theoretically happen:
1. The Yankees and Red Sox would play a tie-breaker to determine the division winner and first wild-card winner. For the sake of the discussion, let’s suppose the Red Sox win (I don’t want to appear gratuitously provocative to our friends on the other side of the ledger . . . ). In this case, the Red Sox are the first seed (best record in the league), the AL Central Winner is the second seed, the AL West winner is the third seed, the Yankees are the fourth seed (better record of the two Wild Cards) and the second Wild Card is the fifth seed.
2. Further suppose the Yankees defeat the second Wild Card team.
3. The Yankees, as the fourth seed would now draw the Red Sox (first seed) as their opponent in the LDS.
Is this analysis correct? Are my assumptions valid? Or am I overlooking some rules that been built in to prevent this sort of scenario?
Too much complexity here. They need to get rid of these high-falutin’ divisions and go back to unpartitioned leagues — best record earns the pennant!
Oct 13, 2012 @ 00:38:15
Can you believe this Cardinals team? They’re like Dracula — you just can’t kill them! What resilience! I have to admit, this year’s suite of LDS series was awesome.
Oct 13, 2012 @ 00:44:14
Greg
You got it completely right. Yanks would be the #4 seed in your scenario and head to Boston for the ALDS, essentially what happened to Baltimore this year (without the playoff for the AL East. The only difference is next year the ALDS will go back to the 2-2-1 format, so the higher seed will open at home.
Oct 13, 2012 @ 00:44:49
Greg
Yup, St. Louis is scary. I wonder if Pujols was watching?
Oct 13, 2012 @ 00:52:20
Peter,
I have to think that of the four teams remaining, the Cardinals have to be considered the favorites. What do you think?
I wonder if a tiny little piece of Pujols died just now watching what was happening and knowing he could have chosen to be a part of it. Oh well — I guess he can always console himself by counting his money . . .
Oct 13, 2012 @ 10:07:53
According to Vegas, they are actually the underdog out of the four teams remaining.
I’m not sure there is a clear favorite right now. The Cardinals have a lot going for them, but their starting pitching isn’t great after Lohse. I think the NLCS is going to be an amazing series.
As for the ALCS, I like the Yankees’ chances if they keep pitching like they did in the ALDS.
Oct 13, 2012 @ 18:57:23
Peter,
Vegas is crazy. I have the Yankees as the underdog of the four, actually. I think it was more of a case of poor hitting by the Orioles’ hitters than great pitching by the Yankees’ pitchers that held the Orioles’ offense in check. I feel the same way about the Orioles’ pitchers and the Yankees’ hitters, by the way.
Oct 13, 2012 @ 20:12:02
Greg
I think you are right to consider the Yankees the underdog in this series because they can’t align their pitching. But, if they advance to the Series, I’m not sure I would agree.
Hopefully, we have that problem to discuss later!