TwitterFact and Fiction
12 Oct 2012
Heard some interesting points on sports radio this morning. I would like to debunk some of them.
#1- Alex Rodriguez is a terrible postseason player.
Fiction- how quickly we forget. Does 2009 ring a bell? Without Alex’s six homers in the postseason, the Yankees don’t win that World Series. His home run in Game 2 of the ALDS tied the game at 3 in the bottom of the ninth. His home run in Game 3, tied the game at 1 in the 7th. His home run in Game 2 of the ALCS tied the game in the bottom of the 11th and his home run in the World Series brought the Yankees to within 1 run down in Game 3. In fact take his entire postseason body of work and he has hit ,268/.377/.475. Not too shabby at all.
#2- Benching A-Rod today would be as bad or worse than hitting him 8th in 2006.
Fiction- That was a completely different player. In 2006, A-Rod was the reigning MVP and had hit 35 home runs in the regular season. Joe Torre usually made smart decisions, but this was one of his worst and really seemed more about embarrassing A-Rod more than anything else. Today, Alex is a completely different player and benching him wouldn’t have anywhere near the sting the 2006 move did.
#3- The Yankees offense is MIA
Fact- They have been terrible and apart from Jeter, Ibanez, Martin and Teixeira, there isn’t much to look at. However, the Orioles have been worse,
#4- The Yankees should bench Curtis Granderson today.
Fiction- This is a tough call. Granderson has been terrible (1-for-16 with 9 K’s) but with a righty on the mound, he should be in the lineup. The only way I bench him is if it is for Gardner. Ibanez can DH, but I do not want him in left for a game that starts in the sunlight. Too much potential for an error.
#5- The Yankees are thinking of starting Derek Lowe in the ALCS.
Fact (I think)- If you stop and think about it, why didn’t Lowe come into that game instead of Phelps? Lowe is the veteran and pitched very well for the Yankees down the stretch. If the Yankees make the ALCS they have the choice of pitching Kuroda on three-days rest in Game 2, or coming up with another starter. My suspicion is that Girardi was thinking about using Lowe for that game. I hope we find out.
Back after the game. It’s amazing to think that these two teams are 11-11 against each other this year. This is one heck of a tiebreaker.
Oct 12, 2012 @ 15:06:10
I agree with benching A Rod. Chavez looks better at the plate; is a lefty; and fields the position well. Were Gardner fully healthy and able to hit, I’d sit Granderson down as well.
I do think A Rod has another good year or two in him; he just has to get healthy for a full season.
The lesson here is the idiocy of long term contracts. When Boras asks for a 10 year deal for Cano, the response has got to be to ask how A Rod is doing in year 5. Granderson’s performance in the regular season (re — decline in batting average and a number of weak at bats despite great power) and in the post-season should also give us pause. Why offer him more than a 3 year deal? And why offer Swisher more than a 1 year deal given the luxury tax on payroll that kicks in as of 2014?
I think if the Yanks want to pay big money, they can do better than Granderson and Swisher on the free market. There are going to a lot of changes soon, so if this team is going to win it better do so right away.
Oct 12, 2012 @ 15:50:15
A-Rod will not start Game 5.
A-Rod is catching all the heat for the Yankees’ offensive futility, of course (doesn’t he always?). The truth is that most of the lineup has failed to deliver.
Oct 12, 2012 @ 17:04:06
Greg
You’re right, but its also the price he pays for signing that contract.
If a lefty had started today, I would have benched Granderson. He’s been worse than A-Rod, but like I said above, his defense keeps him in there.
And it would be nice for Cano to get a hit or two.
Oct 12, 2012 @ 19:21:07
Corey
You have an excellent point. The thing is, I don’t see how the Yankees will be able to field a playoff-caliber team and meet that payroll threshold because the upper levels of the minors just don’t have replacements for guys like Swisher, Granderson and Cano right now.
Now, they can meet the threshold, but if the product isn’t good on the field I doubt those $1250 tickets will sell. It will be an interesting choice they make in the near future.
Oct 12, 2012 @ 21:35:53
When I run the numbers and think about the fixed fee revenues they get from broadcast rights, sorry to say Peter – but it makes MORE sense to adhere to the budget and lose some fans than it does to bust the top off that salary cap.
There are some ways to dump salary out before the deadline which we’ve talked about, but I really believe that the owners are going to work to a budget for at least one year. As a result, you and Corey are right, it might get a little mediocre around the Bronx for a while.
Oct 12, 2012 @ 21:51:28
Mitchell
My understanding is they could save close to $50 million if they do it. But, that is also equal to 500 seats sold as season tickets at $1250 a pop.
Hal also vowed in March
“We always will field a championship-caliber team. I’ve said that a thousand times.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/02/sports/baseball/yankees-want-to-cut-payroll-to-189-million-by-2014.html
Maybe I am missing something, but from where I sit, those two goals are going to be hard to attain at the same time.
Oct 12, 2012 @ 22:46:54
Mitchell
The other thing is, they are printing money with their own presses on River Avenue.
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/yankees-seeking-changes-in-yes-ownership/
Oct 12, 2012 @ 23:49:51
Peter:
“The thing is, I don’t see how the Yankees will be able to field a playoff-caliber team and meet that payroll threshold because the upper levels of the minors just don’t have replacements for guys like Swisher, Granderson and Cano right now.” That’s always it, in a nutshell, isn’t it? The Yankees haven’t done the kind of player development necessary to avoid getting caught in this death spiral. Nobody makes the playoffs every year. They’re going to have some lean years — it is inevitable. The issue is to manage the cycle intelligently. The longer they put it off, the worse it will be. I’d let Granderson and Swisher walk. They want too much money for to many years, and the Yankees have already gotten the best they’re going to get out of them. If Cano/Boras expect 10 years, they can take a hike, too. You have to draw the line somewhere, if only for the sake of the long-term financial viability of the organization. Further, the salaries have driven prices to an unsustainable level. I received email today from Working Advantage offering secondary market seats to Game 5! That ought to cause some alarm bells to ring.
Oct 13, 2012 @ 00:40:40
Greg
Well the Yankees have certainly been the exception to that rule over the last 18 years, but I agree in terms of the big picture.
If the Yankees didn’t already have over $80 million committed to the 2014 payroll, I think they could pull it off. But, they have that and they have too many potential free agents. Don’t forget, Hughes becomes a free agent in 2014 as does Joba. Gardner will be in his last year of arbitration. Nova will enter arbitration along with some other guys.
I think the Yankees actually too a smart approach to it, trying to create a young, cost-effective pitching staff. Problem is, Pineda got hurt, so did Banuelos, and Betances lost the plate. Imagine how we would look at things if Pineda had just completed a solid year in the Bronx and Banuelos had done the same in AAA? Now we have no idea if either Pineda or Banuelos will be the same again and they can’t be counted on for anything in the future.
Cashman is either going to have to pull a lot of magic in the trade market, or the Yankees will have to break out the checkbook to stay competitive. I’m still thinking of my preferred approach and will settle on something when the season ends. (Hopefully, a few weeks from now.)