TwitterLet’s Not Print The World Series Tickets In July
19 Jul 2012
On May 28th, I wondered how the Yankees would fare over their next 44 games. With yesterday’s win against Toronto, we have an answer, really really well. The Yankees not only survived a rough patch in the schedule, they dominated it, going 31-13. Not only that, but they went from 2-1/2 back in the division to 9-1/2 games up thanks to the fact that only Boston has played above .500 ball in the AL East since that date.
But, let’s not forget that there are still 71 games left to play. Almost half a season to go. In fact, today is an anniversary that should remind us that nothing is settled in July. It was 34 years ago tonight that the Yankees started to climb out of the 14-game deficit in the AL East. That 1978 team went 51-21 over its final 72 games while Boston went 37-35. If these Yankees close their season in a similar fashion, they will end up with 93 wins. That would mean Baltimore would have to go 46-24 to beat them a .657 clip. Boston would need one additional win, so 47-23, a .671 clip. Both are difficult, but certainly not impossible. And remember, Boston still has 12 games against the Yankees and Baltimore has 10, so they will have plenty of chances to cut that lead down.
To me the biggest question mark in all of this is Brett Gardner. We still haven’t heard what his MRI on Monday showed. That indicates to me that he can’t be counted on to return. While the Yankees haven’t missed his bat, they certainly have missed his glove. The Ibanez/Jones combo would be a perfect DH tandem. As outfielders, they are not assets. So, if I were Brian Cashman, I would be trying to find someone who could take over leftfield on a regular basis in the trade market and it doesn’t have to be a rental guy.
This is a fairly similar situation to the trade deadline of 2006. Back then the Yankees had Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui on the DL. The Yankees had an option on Sheffield for 2007, but they could also let him walk in the free agent market. They went out and got Bobby Abreu from the Phillies and then picked up the option, but traded Sheffield in the off season. With Nick Swisher a potential free agent after the season, the Yankees could try and trade for a guy who could play left now, with the idea that he switches over to right in 2013. Perhaps someone like a Josh Willingham, Michael Cuddyer or David DeJesus. Three guys who are playing on teams that are in rebuilding mode. (I recognize that in that trio only DeJesus could be called a good outfielder, but I still think Willingham or Cuddyer would be better than the Ibanez/Jones combo.)
Or, the Yankees could sit back and do nothing, which is probably Brian Cashman’s preferred route. I wouldn’t be overly upset if they stood pat, but I hope that would be a reflection of the prices in the trade market rather than being happy with where they are in the standings. There is plenty of baseball left to be played.
Jul 19, 2012 @ 22:43:17
I was hoping you’d come back after the 44 games and so a follow-up post . . . especially since things went much better than I’d imagined they would. When you tally up the long-term injuries they’ve sustained — Pineda, Mo, Pettite, Gardner — I think they’ve really proven themselves to be quite resilient. Biggest surprise to me is that the bullpen hasn’t missed a beat. A far cry from the Torre days. Losing Mo then would have been fatal.
Gardner is going to have surgery on his elbow. Probably done for the year.
Jul 19, 2012 @ 22:57:49
Greg
Great point about Torre and the bullpen. The biggest difference between Girardi and Torre is the way Girardi develops and protects his relievers. I would bet David Robertson would be getting arm surgery now if Torre was the manager last year.
Bad news on Gardner. I don’t understand why it took three months to decide that surgery was needed.
Jul 21, 2012 @ 09:25:20
Even through the nostalgia, I prefer Girardi’s style to Torre’s. Part of that may be that Torre was always distracted by King George’s nonsense and didn’t have the luxury of thinking about tomorrow in the way he handled his players. But I think/agree that Girardi has grown to be a better team manager.
Tangent: the OF is starting to look a little frayed, Granderson looks tired, Swisher is struggling/hurt and the Ibanez/Jones platoon concerns me. Gardner is not an answer this season … my guess is there’s going to be, at least, a callup or a trade done in the next 10 days.
Jul 21, 2012 @ 18:56:25
Mitchell
That’s a very good point. I don’t know if Girardi would have been able to handle King George. Some days, Girardi doesn’t seem able to handle the Yankee beat reporters.
I am a little worried about the news this afternoon that Swisher is having a MRI. It’s too bad that Jack Cust is a DH and left handed, because he is killing the ball in AAA. Cust has a line of .261/.405/.500 in 388 AB’s. If Chavez wasn’t hitting so well, they could bring Cust up to DH, but it doesn’t make sense now. Chavez is pounding RHP.
Jul 22, 2012 @ 12:05:16
Peter,
Yep, Cust surely has found his stroke again – but, like you said, we have the DH slot covered. The only guys I see “ready” to come up are Garner or Dickerson, neither of whom is on the 40 man. They are reporting that Swisher is going to try to rest it our for a few days so we will be a player short. Ugh.
I only hope that we don’t trade away Phelps for a mid-season OFer/rental. That kid can pitch, even in the Stadium and on a national broadcast. I would like to see him take Freddie’s turn next time around. He deserves the shot …