TwitterA Better Yardstick
28 May 2012
A five-game winning streak is nothing to sniff at, but it should also be viewed with caution. The Yankees beat up on two teams that they really should beat up on if they are going to be a serious playoff team. Now things are going to get a lot tougher.
Look at the breakdown of the next 44 games:
6 games against the Angels (and check out what Pujols has done recently)
3 games against Detroit
6 games against Tampa
6 games against the Mets (currently 1/2 a game better than the Yankees)
6 games against the Braves
3 games against Washington- on the road
3 games against Cleveland (first place Cleveland)
4 games against the White Sox
4 games against Boston- on the road
3 games against Toronto
That’s over 1/4 of the season against teams who are all .500 or better except for Detroit and Boston. And do you really expect either of those clubs to remain under .500?
There are a number of things that will determine whether or not the Yankees can succeed or fail over this stretch.
Start with Mark Teixeira. He was awesome over the weekend and the Yankees obviously need that to continue. He says his breathing is better, so maybe we will see the surge continue.
And let’s move to A-Rod. He belted two homers on Thursday and then didn’t have an extra-base hit all weekend. In fact, he has only five doubles all season which ties him with Russel Martin and Curtis Granderson for the lowest total among Yankee regulars. Is he a singles hitter now, or does he still have power? One interesting note is that he has stolen six bases already this season. He hasn’t stolen more than 4 since 2009.
Let’s move to a pitcher, Phil Hughes. Hughes had a terrible April, but in May he has looked like a solid middle of the rotation guy. His walk rate is way down and his ERA in the month stands at 3.45. If he continues near that pace, the Yankees could have a pretty solid rotation because…
…of Kuroda and Pettitte. Pettitte has pitched very well in two of his three starts. Kuroda lowered his ERA below 4 yesterday and for all the talk about his inability to pitch in the AL, the fact remains that he has allowed three runs or less in 7 of his 10 starts. Throw out the two starts where he got really hammered and his ERA is 2.42. CC will be CC and there is a chance he will be followed in the rotation by the best second, third and fourth starters the Yankees have had in awhile.
That’s important because the fifth starter is not doing so well. Ivan Nova’s overall ERA is ugly, but more concerning to me is the trend that developed in May. While his ERA in May is not very different from his ERA in June, it hides some underlying flaws. His strikeout to walk ratio has dropped from 5 to 2.58. He has allowed 8 homers in May compared to 4 in April. He is still striking out a lot of guys, but the other numbers are troubling. The Yankees will have patience with him, but I wonder how long they will wait if he keeps pitching like this?
The good news is that the Yankees should get some reinforcements during this stretch. Hopefully, Brett Gardner and David Robertson return to the club in the very near future. The Yankees will need them.
May 29, 2012 @ 07:32:21
Every time I think I have a good understanding of each player’s trajectory, the trajectory changes.
Hughes looked awful, stubbornly awful last night. I read his comments that he was too amped up to do anything other than throw fastballs. Reminded me of Ebby Calvin wondering if the hitter knew he was going to be throwing a fastball. From Hughes, they expect fastballs the same way batters expect cutters from Mo. Yep, Phil surely “announced himself with authority” to the Angels (again). I wonder if Martin is the second coming of Crash Davis. He’s certainly playing like a AAAA catcher …
And you’re right, Peter, Nova is fooling no one any more.
May 29, 2012 @ 23:17:40
Mitchell
That was a strange, strange game. Hughes was a disaster in the first, but pitched pretty well from there. I’m not sure what to make of Girardi’s decision to lift him after 87 pitchers and go to Epply. That’s hardly a vote of confidence.
The mystery to me with Hughes is his failures in an 0-2 count. Hitters are 7-for-25 off of him with 5 doubles and a homer.
May 30, 2012 @ 11:05:25
Peter,
I have looked at Hughes’ pitch fx stats on almost every pitch and the only thing that I can guess is that he’s over thinking and probably tensing up once he gets hitters to a put away count. Once that happens, his velocity creeps up a notch and his pitches move less. An inch here or there and suddenly you’re very hittable.
This is going to sound like I am projecting blamce away from Hughes – maybe I am – but I think that Girardi may want to think about letting Stewart catch Hughes and see how that goes. My sense is that it’s up to the C to direct the game, INCLUDING calming down a pitcher when and as necessary. I suspect that if Hughes could stop thinking and just throw, without thinking, whatever his catcher called, he would stop trying to squeeze the cork out of the ball or light it on fire with velocity, which is killing his control and his late movement.
Hey, it couldnt’t hurt to try it for a game …
May 30, 2012 @ 18:13:46
Mitchell
That’s probably right. I would add that he also is probably throwing way too “good” of a pitch on 0-2 instead of trying to waste one and get the hitters to chase.
Stewart has caught Hughes twice, but not May 1st. Neither start was particularly good, but why not try it again? After all, Kuroda looked pretty good throwing to Stewart the other day.
It brings up a question though. What happened between Martin and Sabathia? Girardi can deny it all he wants, but Stewart is obviously now CC’s personal catcher. Martin caught CC 19 times last year and his ERA was slightly lower in those starts than it was in the 14 he made with Cervelli behind the plate. The 2 starts CC made with Martin this year weren’t good, but I can’t believe that’s the reason he is no longer catching CC.
May 30, 2012 @ 20:04:51
One of the pitching coaches I knew from independent ball (a former MLB guy) used to be *really* adamant about making the 0-2 or 1-2 pitch a special one: he wanted it about 6 to 8 inches off the plate near the batters happy zone and he wanted sink on it. He called it “the tease”. It sounded so logical and so easy. Of course, most of his pitchers would miss by 6 to 8 inches and BOOM, but the few who could tease it like that had great success. I think Hughes has adrenaline issues – and with those come control issues. The announcers call it “leaking” back over the plate – this coach would call it “%!@#ing up”.
Someone needs to get back into Hughes’ head and get him to “get calm and go blank”. Nova seems able to do that, Hughes seems like a nervous wreck. I guess he would have an ERA under 2.00 if he were pitching in Pittsburgh.
I too have wondered about the CC/Stewart match up. Maybe its Girardi’s way of guaranteeing Martin a day off while maintaining some consistency for CC and Stewart. Girardi will never tell us the real reasons, but it would be fun to know them.
May 30, 2012 @ 20:27:22
Mitchell
To go back to your Nuke LaLoosh comparison, I wonder if Hughes feels that in an 0-2 count he needs to “announce his presence with authority?”
To quote a different, but still good, Kevin Costner baseball movie. He needs to “clear the mechanism”
May 31, 2012 @ 07:53:49
they are 2 games out of 1st, the entire division is finally above .500 , while no team has gone and run away it is like an extended spring training the way everybody is bunched up.
Time to start the real season?
Jun 05, 2012 @ 12:32:49
Here’s an interesting exercise: absent trades or free agent signings (increasingly unlikely given economic constraints), what does the Yankee roster look like in three years?
Romine C
Texeira 1B
Cano 2b
Nunez SS
A Rod 3B
Gardner LF
Granderson CF
Williams RF
Sabathia P
Pineda P
Hughes P
Nova P
Banuelos P
Robertson Cl
Bettances P
Logan
Wade
Is this a winning team?