TwitterThe Day After
4 May 2012
While we all hope that Mariano Rivera won’t decide to retire off of this injury, the fact remains that the 2012 Yankees need to regroup and figure out how to replace him. As I see it, there are three choices they can make.
1- Give the job to David Robertson. Robertson has been lights out and he appears to have ice water in his veins so it would be a good fit. In a way they would be passing the torch to a guy who resembles Rivera pre 1997.
2- Give the job to Rafael Soriano. Soriano has closed before and done it in the AL East, so he could certainly do it. Furthermore, letting him close now would allow him to rack up some saves and increase the chances that he opts out of his contract after this season.
3- Move Phil Hughes to the bullpen with the idea of making him the closer in the near future. Probably not going to happen, nor am I saying it should- yet. But, if Hughes continues to be a two-pitch pitcher, it’s hard to see how he stays in the rotation. He’s been in the bullpen before so it isn’t the craziest idea. But, I think the Yankees won’t make this move unless Hughes bombs in his next few starts. After all, Rivera was once a mediocre starter.
Lost in all of this is a move which didn’t get a lot of notice at the time, but could become important later this season- the signing of David Aardsma. Aardsma saved 69 games from 2009-10, but he’s essentially been injured since then. When the Yankees signed him in February Cashman said he was a month behind Joba in his comeback (before Joba’s ankle injury) so he could be ready to pitch in July. Hopefully, the Yankees don’t have a big hole in their bullpen come July, but if they do, Aardsma could be a solid addition.
If the choice were mine, I give the job to Robertson. The Yankees were going to need to develop a new closer one of these days, why not go with the home-grown guy?
May 04, 2012 @ 13:41:42
This sounded like your choice:
“and increase the chances that he opts out of his contract after this season”
but if I were a Yankee fan, I would vote for Hughes. Start now, when Soriano flees and Mo finally calls it quits the job is his (or Joba’s).
May 04, 2012 @ 15:06:20
Actually BL, you’d vote for Brackman to close for the Yankees if given the choice. Who’s zoomin who here, amigo.
Peter – I can see the team going with a two man closer committee of Robertson and Soriano. I like the idea of Soriano showing talent and then opting out and departing. Robertson slides into the full time role and goes on to save 400 games for us with a career ERA under 1.1. Like you, I would also go with Robertson in ’12 if I had to choose one guy.
I truly hope Hughes can stick in the rotation. He’s got the stuff and the talent: he has succeeded for us as a SP before, he can do it again. Joba can be a key part of the bridge to Robertson.
Andy is a one year deal. So is Kuroda (maybe), We will need Hughes to stick as a good SP. Betances has developed the yips and Banuelos has back troubles. Maybe Joba has matured and can find his way back as a starter in 13 (long shot).
Thinking (too far) forward: CC, Pineda, Hughes, Nova then TBD.
May 04, 2012 @ 16:39:25
Bl
I am all for the possibility, but I like Mitchell, think Robertson has the higher upside.
May 04, 2012 @ 16:40:56
Mitchell
Sounds good and you are certainly right about Hughes and the future. I think however that the 5th guy in your rotation is Banuelos. Lost in all the chaos last night was Banuelos’ return to the mound. 3.2 IP 2H 0R 0BB 5K’s
May 04, 2012 @ 16:46:25
Hughes in the 7th; Soriano in the 8th; Robertston in the 9th.
Starting rotation: Sabathia; Kuroda; Pettite; Nova; and then either Garcia/Phelps/Mitchell
May 04, 2012 @ 17:38:59
You’re right, Peter, I didn’t see Banuelos’ line. That’s really pretty sweet. I would love to see that starting rotation next year.
Corey – I think Hughes (still) has the (slight) upper hand still over the threesome you lay out for the 5th spot this season. We’re also assuming that Andy can still get MLB hitters out … I sure hope he does.
And yep, Mo has just proclaimed that he’s coming back. Considering the damage (ACL + meniscus) and his age, all I can see is “hope so – we’ll see”.
May 05, 2012 @ 00:08:01
I want to see Hughes in the starting rotation. I think he has the talent and the ability. He just needs to get it together, and the Yankees need to help him.
I, too, see a closer committee of two, with Robertson as “primary” and Soriano as “secondary”.
As for Mo:
In order to rehab from a torn ACL and a torn meniscus (the first is very often accompanied by a tear in one or both menisci), Mo has some significant challenges but also some substantial advantages. Let’s start with the advantages:
1. He’ll have access to the best surgeons, physical therapists and equipment. He’s not getting cut off by the insurance company after 30 PT sessions like you or I would.
2. He’ll get to focus intensely on his rehab, day in and day out. He won’t need to worry about getting back to work to pay the bills. His contract is guaranteed, after all. Rehab will be his job for the next year. Again, no need to worry about insurance companies limiting his access to rehab.
3. In order to rehab himself to where he was before, he’ll need steely determination. He has that in spades — you simply don’t accomplish what this man has accomplished without it. Human beings are capable of remarkable things when they set their minds to it.
Now for the disadvantages:
1. As Mitchell pointed out, the man is 42. The difference between a 42 year-old recovering from this and a 22 tear-old is huge. The body simply doesn’t heal as quickly. That’s just nature.
2. The meniscus injury is a big (though not unexpected) complication. Although “ACL tear” sounds so much more serious than “meniscus tear”, it is not as straightforward as is popularly believed. Ligaments heal, menisci don’t. This is because ligaments receive blood, which carries the nutrients necessary to help them heal, whereas menisci do not get blood and hence do not heal. Interesting fact: the torn ligament will be replaced by a graft either from his good knee or from a cadaver. Over time, the body will “grow” a new ligament, which will gradually consume the graft. If you stop and think about it, that is really a cool thing. Anyway, the older the patient, the longer this process takes. The blood flow to the ligament makes this process possible, The meniscus, lacking blood flow, can not heal. The surgeon will cut away any torn flaps and trim ragged edges — hopefully, the damage is minimal and the cutting and trimming will likewise be minimal. Meniscal tears are a big wild card in these situations; the wear and tear associated with the older patient, especially that of an athlete, does not help. Further, there are different kinds of tears: some are more likely to lead to recurring tears than others, some are more difficult to recover from than others. Many factors come into play, including the orientation of the tear(s), the number of tears, the depth of the tears, the presence or absence of lots and lots of micro-tears. Taking all these factors together, it’s tough to predict how well the meniscus will recover. It could plague him for the rest of his life, making even common usage of the knee that we all take for granted difficult. Good rehab and steely determination can not help mitigate this (though bad rehab can cause further damage).
Another interesting fact: ACL reconstruction surgery is to the leg what “Tommy John” surgery is to the arm — the same general approach is used. Replace a damaged ligament with a good tendon and let the body “grow” a replacement ligament. For an ACL reconstruction in a middle-aged man, you can pretty much forget about seeing him on the field again in 2012 (as Mo and Jeter suggested). Even if he is feeling great, I doubt any doctor would give him the okay to go back out on the field so soon. His new ACL will be too vulnerable, and I don’t think an ACL brace is a viable option for a pitcher. A football player, yes, a pitcher, no.
All this is a long-winded way of saying: yes, it’s tough, and skepticism is warranted. It is not an easy thing to recover from this kind of injury, and some factors (like the nature of the meniscal tear) may come into play that are out of his control. But if anyone can do it, he can (assuming the nature of his injuries permits it). I will be rooting for him, for a few reasons: I want him to go out on his own terms, I want to hear the roar of the crowd when he steps back onto that field for the first time, and, as you’ve no doubt surmised, I know what he’s going through.
May 05, 2012 @ 08:32:26
wow, very knowledgeable post Greg, I assume you are in the medical field somewhere.
I think the one thing he has going for him besides what you have mentioned is that as a relief pitcher, as a closer, he wouldn’t have the start/stop running that everyday players have to endure. He wouldn’t have sliding and diving wear and tear. Other than shagging he probably has a very strict regiment of activities he partakes in.
I’m guessing when a basketball player, football player, everyday baseball player go in for ACL surgery they find all kinds of secondary damage that either gets addresses if possible and/or affects rehab.
Mo probably has relatively healthy legs other than this new issue. Just pt assumption.
May 05, 2012 @ 10:44:28
BL,
No, I am not in the medical field — I am in data networking. My knowledge comes from having read about the procedure — and having lived through it. I had the surgery three years ago at the age of 43.
You’re right, he doesn’t have the start/stop running that is common with, say, football and basketball players, and guys running the bases. But, as right-handed pitcher, he lands on his right leg — for him, the menisci in the right knee are used even more than those in the left knee.
May 05, 2012 @ 11:50:51
Greg
Outstanding post, thanks for sharing your knowledge.
The question it brings to my mind is what do the Yankees do? Mo is a free agent after this season. He will be 43 and obviously won’t have pitched in almost a year.
Knowing that, what kind of contract do the Yankees give him? Certainly not the $15 million he earned this year, but what amount? If I am the Yankees, I offer him a chance to earn the $15 million in incentives with a low base, but I have a feeling Rivera won’t like that. Being the highest paid closer in the game has been important to him. I believe Papelbon is the second-highest at $11 million, so this could get interesting.
May 05, 2012 @ 14:56:37
Greg – wonderful post. It matches perfectly with what I have just heard from one of my son’s friends. He just had his knee ripped up playing lacrosse and his comments to me were: ligaments are easy, they heal and become strong, His meniscus injury is the one that has the Army backing away from their prior committments to him – which is sad in so many ways. That’s exactly why when I heard about the meniscus, I knew that this was something from which there may be no full recovery.
Mo has a machine like pitching motion – it’s his source of consisteny. To disturb his motion, especialy with his pushoff leg (right knee on a RHP) might mean that his motion is lost – possibly for good. That’s also his “perch” knee at the beginning of his motion. I am really concerned about this man’s obstacles. Like everyone here, I wish him well and a speedy recovery. I need to be hear Enter Sandamn a few more times in my lifetime.
His contract offer for 2013? That, Peter, is a fascinating question, one for which I have zero guesses.
May 05, 2012 @ 19:53:51
Mitchell
Sorry to hear about your son. I hope he has a speedy recovery.
May 06, 2012 @ 00:52:49
Peter – thanks for the sincere wishes. Please know it’s my son’s friend who got hacked in lacrosse – not my son. (whew)
May 06, 2012 @ 02:36:33
Mitchell
I’m glad I am not taking my SAT in reading comprehension again! Whew indeed, but also crappy for that kid and I hope he recovers quickly.
Gotta say, I was surprised to hear about lacrosse players in your neck of the woods. Glad to hear the sport is breaking out of its “Mid Atlantic” roots.
May 06, 2012 @ 07:48:57
uh actually lacrosse is huge and always has been in new england. We never had a great baseball team, lacrosse always stole our best players. Umass always fields a top team, competing with the likes of Johns Hopkins, Army, Syracuse and others.
May 06, 2012 @ 17:02:09
Made a mistake in my last post. As a RHP, Mo lands on his left leg, not his right leg; he pushes off his right leg. Sorrt about that. The lesson here being don’t post in a rush — tell the wife to wait a minute! Or, umm, maybe wait and post later.
May 06, 2012 @ 23:47:32
BL
I could be wrong, but I don’t think the game has the same following in NE as it does in the Mid Atlantic. UMass may love it, but it is a religion in my neck of the woods.
May 06, 2012 @ 23:48:03
Greg
Definitely “wait and post later” is the way to go. Definitely!
May 08, 2012 @ 07:36:49
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/colleges/post/_/id/2313/umass-to-compete-for-div-i-lacrosse-title
booyah!
May 08, 2012 @ 11:28:45
There are reports of “complications” with Rivera’s knee. Don’t know what that means. They did not elaborate.
May 08, 2012 @ 16:53:34
Greg
Yeah, I read Cashman said it wouldn’t affect his return in 2013, but he would leave it up to Mo to explain tomorrow. Strange to say the least.