TwitterRed Sox Line-up
1 Mar 2012
Wow, Bobby Valentine likes to talk. He’s already said more controversial stuff in his first few weeks on the job than Terry Francona said in 8 seasons. I don’t mind a strong personality, but don’t turn into Rex Ryan. My prediction, Bobby last 2-3 seasons here in Boston max. His routine will wear thin quickly.
With the departures of Red Sox legends Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield (I mean that literally. Sure they aren’t in the same class as Ted or Yaz, but they were long-time Red Sox players in an era when players bounce around a great deal. They weren’t superstars, but good major league players and given their overall success and tenure, deserve to be called Red Sox legends), the departure of JD Drew, Jonathan Papelbon, Marco Scurato, John Lackey for one year, Daisuke Matsuzaka for at least a month or 2 and a few other changes, this team looks a bunch different.
Here’s what we think we know:
c – Saltalamacchia
1b – Gonzalez
2b – Pedroia
3b – Youkilis
ss – Aviles/Punto
lf – Crawford
cf – Ellsbury
rf – Ross
dh – Ortiz
It is funny, with Carl Crawford’s addition last year, there just doesn’t seem to be a way to get him into the top of the line-up. Ask yourself who is a better hitter, Crawford or Ellsbury? Crawford or Pedroia? Crawford or Gonzalez? Crawford or Youkilis? Crawford or Ortiz? There is no way you can make a case that he is better than any of those guys, based on last year efforts anyway or even when their full careers are considered. So you have to drop Crawford down to 6 or 7. He is on record this spring as saying he prefers the #2 spot, but that isn’t a smart baseball decision, he had a .694 OPS in 2011 for cripes sake.
If Crawford can find some confidence and figure out how to thrive in a lower spot in the order, then it is a good problem to have.
I like Scutaro and don’t quite understand his departure, especially since the Red Sox didn’t turn around and get a starter with the money they saved. At the same time, I think Aviles, with Punto sprinkled in, will do just fine. Jose Iglesias isn’t ready, he needs more time to simmer in AAA, especially to work on his bat.
Ross in right should be suitable and when Kalish returns, they’ll make a nice platoon. I’m interested to see if Ryan Lavarnway sticks with the big club as he’d be a great right bat to have off the bench but he’ll probably need to learn some 1b to stay in Boston.
All told, the offense should be good. With stronger dedication, there is no reason not to believe this team can score 900 runs. Considering Youkilis’s injuries and JD Drew being, well, JD Drew, the Red Sox still posted 875 runs in 2011. 900 in 2012 isn’t a stretch.
Mar 02, 2012 @ 18:56:38
have to disagree. You have to assume last year was the aberration for Crawford and he starts the year in the #2 spot. Youk is the one that moves down slightly, no biggie. Pedroia goes 3, Gonzo 4, Youk 5, Ortiz 6. Nice lineup actually.
Mar 03, 2012 @ 10:25:27
The way I see it, you have 5 very good hitters: Pedroia, Youkilis, Gonzalez, Ellsbury, and Crawford. I put Crawford in this category because you have to view last year as an aberration.
Then you have Ortiz who is a bit of a question mark. Then you’ve got 3 deadspots in the order. I just don’t see the Red Sox as the powerhouse team they had in the last decade.
As a Yankee fan, I’m more concerned about the Red Sox pitching. I’d give the Red Sox the edge in starting pitching and the Yankees the edge in the bullpen. I see the Yankees as having the deeper batting order. Defensively the teams seem about even.
Mar 04, 2012 @ 11:03:58
Ortiz in 2009 certainly was a huge question mark, 2010, 2011 were very productive years.
I realize Arod has not been the Arod of old in recent years, but take a look at this comparison of the last 4 seasons between Arod and Ortiz.
ArodOrtiz
G124.5137.5
PA538.0582.3
AB462.3500.0
R80.880.3
H131.3135.3
2b25.035.3
3b0.81.0
hr27.828.0
rbi97.596.5
bb62.876.0
so98.0109.0
ba.284.271
obp.374.367
slg.521.513
ops.896.880
So as far as a question mark, if Ortiz delivers the average of his last 4 seasons (which included the dismal 2009) I’d take it in a heartbeat (no question mark).
As for the deadspots, Salty, Cody Ross, and whomever at SS are a significant step down for sure. If Salty can better his average a bit from LY and get to .250 I’d be thrilled. Ross should be .265 with 15HR and Sweeney getting some time in RF too ~ .280 with zero power. SS- who knows.
When comparing to NY, there are 3 very similar “deadspots” in Martin, Gardner (other than his speed) and whomever fills Posada’s spot. Stat wise very similar between the teams. Scoring runs won’t be a problem for either team unless injuries take over.
Mar 08, 2012 @ 09:30:08
I sure hope Crawford’s year was an aberration as it will be one massive mistake if not.
Crawford is a top 5 hitter when his game is good, but I don’t see him displacing Ellsbury, Pedroia, AGon, Youk or Ortiz.
BL, your analysis was interesting on Ortiz. Yes he is way overpaid, but he is a very productive bat and has been 2 years in a row and even his 2009 was good if you take out the first 2 months (which you can’t do I realize).
I guess the problem is that it is hard to squeeze Crawford in the top 5, but even if you do, trying to figure out a line-up is tough unless you don’t mind back to back lefties.
As for the bottom 3 in the order, Salti, Aviles and Ross/Sweeney/Kalish, I’m hoping they aren’t total dead spots. Lavarnway is very interesting but his defense needs work before we can call him Salti’s equal.
Mar 14, 2012 @ 13:28:14
with a total of 20 games (prior to the postseason) against the Yankees this year the Sox are 1-0 !
Just trying to jumpstart the discussion…I have no idea that they next play each other next Thursday at 7pm