Twitter2011
31 Dec 2011
The beauty of baseball is that you just never know what will happen. Entering the 2011 season, almost everyone predicted that the Red Sox and Phillies would meet in the World Series and that the Cardinals were not going to do much after losing their ace to injury. Yet, the Cardinals walked away with the hardware in 2011, giving the National League its first consecutive titles since 1982.
Some fans view the 2011 Yankees as failures, but I don’t. Perhaps it was the fact that I came of age in the fallow period of Yankee history, but anytime the Yankees win the division, I view it as a successful season. Brian Cashman gambled on a suspect pitching staff and he drew an inside straight. I never thought we would see another Aaron Small-type season, but Bartolo Colon’s 2011 came close. And while Colon faded down the stretch and the starting pitching wasn’t much behind Sabathia and Nova, it’s worth remembering that in the end the offense cost the Yankees a chance to move on.
And what will 2012 bring to Yankees’ fans? It’s foolish to try and predict things when the roster is still in flux, but one thing I can almost guarantee is to expect lots of surprises. Cashman has stood by this offseason and watched the top free agents (except for Fielder) come off the board and the top pitchers in the trade market go elsewhere. It seems that it is all part of his plan to make the Yankees younger and less expensive, but I wouldn’t mistake his inactivity for complacency. If I had to guess, here are five moves we might see occur in 2012.
1- Yankees trade a bunch of prospects for a premium starter. This is hardly going out on a limb, but it remains the most obvious need.
2- Russel Martin get signed to a three-year deal. Again, not a shocker, except for the length of the deal. But, the Yankees have become a very statistically-oriented team and Martin’s defense is superb. Throw in a better than average bat for a catcher and I think they keep him around while they try and develop Montero into a catcher.
3- The closer torch is passed to David Robertson. You read the reported quotes about Mariano wanting to play until he is 50, but I don’t buy it. I think Mo is far too smart to hang around and let age rob him of his abilities and he is also a man who has lots of interests outside of baseball. I think 2012 will be it for him.
4- The Yankees make a trade for a young outfielder. I love Nick Swisher, but let’s face it, he isn’t going to be a Yankee in 2013. The Swisher trade could go down as Brian Cashman’s greatest coup. He got one of the best rightfielders in the game for Wilson Betemit, Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. But, he is 31 and has Scott Boras as an agent. He will be seeking a big deal in the offseason and the Yankees won’t give it to him. The Yankees don’t have an obvious in-house candidate to replace him in 2013, so I think they go outside the organization and find a replacement.
5- Derek Jeter hits 8th in 2012. I don’t think it will happen right away, but at some point in 2012 it is inevitable in my mind that Jeter drops from the top of the lineup. I would bet that the Yankees start the year with Jeter only leading off against lefties, like they did in 2011, but start moving him down against righties by May.
Those are my five, how about yours?
Finally a big thanks to all the readers out there for a wonderful 2011. It’s all of you that make this a fun endeavor. I hope you all have a Happy New Year and please come back in 2012!
-Peter
Dec 31, 2011 @ 13:47:00
Happy New Year!
So, can you provide me with some backup as to why Russell Martin is regarded as such a terrific fielding catcher? Just looking at stats, wow, threw out 40 runners and was first in the AL in that! But, 90 successfully stole on him putting him down the list a bit at 30% rate, even below Salty. The numbers for catchers don’t really show fielding (IMO) like they might for other positions. I assume he will get a raise in your 3 year signing too, right? Is he really worth $7-$8m per year? I don’t see it.
I also don’t see #5 happening. 6th or 7th in the lineup, not 8th though.
Spring training is right around the cornet=..
Dec 31, 2011 @ 15:56:43
BL
Baseball Prospectus did a pretty comprehensive study of catching defense this year. You can read part of it here and there are links to the other parts in that article.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093
To sum it up, a catcher’s primary defensive value isn’t in throwing out runners, though that matters. It’s framing pitches and getting more strikes called for their pitchers. More strikes=fewer hits and runs. Martin is excellent at that as you can see from the article. I would also say he is pretty good at other things like blocking pitches in the dirt.
Dec 31, 2011 @ 16:32:15
Thanks, I browsed through it, seems tenuous but I’ll take a look later on. The impact of getting a third strike is directly related to the outcome of the atbat, first and second strikes not so much a direct relationship but could lead to behaviors by either the pitcher or batter depending on whether they got the strike called or not.
I actually think that study is more indicting of umpires. It is stupid that if a catcher watches the ball down into the glove, and drops HIS head to watch it in, and that causes an ump to call a strike a ball – shame on them. Geez.
Jan 02, 2012 @ 22:05:42
Peter – I can easily agree with #s 2, 3 & 4.
Dropping Jeter to the 8 slot? I can see that being something we all THINK should happen but I suspect Giradi will resist unless Jeter’s numbers tank – and I don’t see that happening. Declining modestly? Maybe, but I don’t see his numbers tanking as he works too hard and is too smart. If he gets hit in the hand again? Maybe then he will fall apart, all the while refusing to say anything other than, “I’m fine, feel great”.
About that trade for a starter? I can see that happening but I guess the more likely events are for us to get long looks at Banuelos and Noesi, with Nova solidifying his hold on a rotation spot – which begs the obvious question: which of the current five projected starters gets pulled/hurt in order for us to get that look?
Jan 02, 2012 @ 22:50:00
Mitchell
If I had to guess I would say Garcia, Nova and then AJ.
Garcia is obvious because the Yankees don’t have a lot invested in him.
I know Nova won 16 games, but he did it by walking a fair amount of guys and not striking out very many. He outpitched his peripherals in 2011 and I could see him getting hit hard early and often in 2012. The Yankees demoted him to the minors to make room for Hughes in 2011 and I bet they would do that again in ’12.
Finally, AJ has to run out of chances sooner or later, right? Right?
Jan 03, 2012 @ 10:14:31
Peter,
Yep, sooner or later AJ has to run out of chances. It is so awful reading about how he’s changed his fingernail shapes and the results should be apparent in the next few starts – and finding myself actually trying to BELIEVE it!
Going to be another season when we (possibly) have to endure an ever-changing rotation. (sigh)
Jan 03, 2012 @ 12:31:21
Mitchell
I think you had the best idea of 2011 when you said you had stopped watching his starts. It’s just not worth the emotional investment.