25 Feb 2011
Lost in the hysteria over the Yankees rotation or lack there of, is the fact that they are still a pretty good team. Baseball Prospectus confirmed that today with the initial release of their playoff odds.
The odds show the Red Sox as favorites for the AL East with an average of 93.5 wins and an 82% of qualifying for the playoffs. Right on their heels are the Yankees at 91.4 and 70.8%. The only team in baseball with a better chance of making the playoffs are the Phillies at 71%.
Now, we can’t see the inner workings of their projections and they are based on assumptions about playing time, but there is a useful example that the folks at BP give us. Yesterday the Cardinals were projected to win the NL Central 51.1% of the time. Today, with the loss of Adam Wainwright, those odds have dropped to 37.9%.
Injuries will happen, rookies will rise, veterans will fail. The projections we see today will certainly change by April and then be refined as the season moves along. But, despite all the obvious warts, the Yankees look pretty good on paper.