TwitterA Look At The Odds
25 Feb 2011
Lost in the hysteria over the Yankees rotation or lack there of, is the fact that they are still a pretty good team. Baseball Prospectus confirmed that today with the initial release of their playoff odds.
The odds show the Red Sox as favorites for the AL East with an average of 93.5 wins and an 82% of qualifying for the playoffs. Right on their heels are the Yankees at 91.4 and 70.8%. The only team in baseball with a better chance of making the playoffs are the Phillies at 71%.
Now, we can’t see the inner workings of their projections and they are based on assumptions about playing time, but there is a useful example that the folks at BP give us. Yesterday the Cardinals were projected to win the NL Central 51.1% of the time. Today, with the loss of Adam Wainwright, those odds have dropped to 37.9%.
Injuries will happen, rookies will rise, veterans will fail. The projections we see today will certainly change by April and then be refined as the season moves along. But, despite all the obvious warts, the Yankees look pretty good on paper.
Feb 25, 2011 @ 10:06:54
Peter – I’m thinking they win 94 to 96 games this year with a slow/mediocre first half followed by a much hotter 2nd half. I know you’re thinking the same way. They will do some major adds/deletes to their rotation by July 31.
Tomorrow? Play ball !
Feb 25, 2011 @ 18:36:21
barring catastrophic key player injuries both the Sox and Yankees will be north of 95 and obviously both make the playoffs. Downish year for Tampa, still not much happening yet with the Orioles or Toronto to threaten the big boys…yet
Feb 25, 2011 @ 19:33:46
Peter and Mitchell,
Being the consummate worrier, I’ve got a few concerns that are gnawing at me (in no particular order):
1. What can we realistically expect from Jeter?
2. Was last year an aberration for Tex? Last season was really frustrating. In addition to his usual April blahs (which seemed to drag on until May . . . or was it June?) he just didn’t seem to offer sustained excellence. I’d like to believe it was just an off year for him. We shall see.
3. AJ. ‘Nuff said.
4. Can Hughes take it to the next level? Sure, he had an All-Star first half, Not so, the second half.
5. Everyone seems to think the bullpen looks great on psper. Well, we all thought the same thing last year, too. Robertson and Joba both had their ups and downs. Things didn’t really settle down until Wood showed up. Also, bullpens are less effective when they get overused — a distinct possibility this season.
6. After Pettite got hurt, things seemed to come spart. It just wasn’t clicking anymore. Much of August and September were simply bad. And the Rangers shellacked them in the LCS.
7. Can Nova take it to the next level? Meaning, can he make it through a lineup three times without getting hsmmered? I’m not sure how high his ceiling is.
So I’m not sold on the idea that they are going to win 90 games, let alone 95.
Feb 26, 2011 @ 10:41:41
I think the Yankees and Red Sox are taking the AL East for granted. Toronto and Tampa Bay have very good teams, and Baltimore played well at the end of the year.
The division will be so competitive that the teams will beat each other up and level everyone’s record in the process. You may not see the wildcard come out of the AL East.
Feb 26, 2011 @ 11:12:15
Greg
All fair. Just for fun, here are my guesses.
1- Better than his overall 2010 (.270/.340/.370), but not a ton better.
2- I would bet yes.
3- I will put this in writing that I think he will be better. Then again, how could he really be worse?
4- I think we see Hughes with a sub-4 ERA for the season.
5- Excellent point, but this is the biggest difference between Girardi and Torre in my mind. Girardi refuses to use guys too many days in a row no matter what. However, I think the Yankees are either going to have to stretch out Joba to pitch multiple innings or run into a big problem here which I will be detailing in a post tomorrow. (Spoiler alert)
6- True, true, true, but injuries to the lineup also played a part in that.
7- I think Nova can give them around 180 innings at rates slightly above league averages. He isn’t an ace, but he is more than enough for the back of the rotation.
I would say right now that the offense and bullpen will be better in 2011 than 2010 with the rotation weaker. I see a lot of 8-6 wins and 4 hour games. It’s a formula that can work in the regular season, but I don’t think it will in the playoffs. That’s what will make the trade deadline so interesting.
Feb 26, 2011 @ 12:21:57
Corey
I think Tampa took a pretty big step back, but you are right about Toronto and Baltimore. I bet Buck gets the Orioles over .500 this year.
Feb 26, 2011 @ 12:51:34
If the Orioles get over .500 it is because they win against somebody other than the Sox or Yankees. There are plenty of wins out there in the AL so it could happen.