TwitterGulp
27 Oct 2010
At this point, Cliff Lee can just write his own Yankees’ contract. Between the news about his wife not liking how she was treated and the story that CC Sabathia needs a “minor” procedure done on his knee, Lee is becoming more valuable by the minute.
Clearly, the Yankees have a need for Lee, but the news about Sabathia should temper their desire. The fact is, pitchers break down. Now everyone is going to say that Sabathia needs his knee procedure because he is just too damn heavy. I can’t disagree with that and I hope his doctors convince him to shed some lbs this offseason. But keep in mind that Sabathia is two years younger than Lee and that while Lee is very svelte, he also had back problems this year.
If you give Lee a five-year deal, you are signing him through age 37. That’s a pretty big risk to take and the Yankees already have Sabathia signed through age 35 and AJ signed through age 36. Let’s say they give Lee the $25 million everyone seems to expect them to give him. That would mean the Yankees will be spending $64 million on three 30-something pitchers. Throw in Andy Pettitte and you might have $80 million on four.
Don’t get me wrong, adding Lee would be a wonderful move in 2011. I would love to have him, but for no more than a four-year deal. If absolutely pressed, I might go five years, but that’s it. Fastballs don’t pick up speed in your 30′s. Those creaks you felt in your late 20′s begin to become more serious, it’s a fact of life. Tying your team to too many 30+ contracts is a risky move to make. The Yankees need to tred very carefully when they sit down to negotiate with Mr. Lee.
Oct 27, 2010 @ 12:52:19
As long as the Red Sox don’t sign him, I don’t care where he signs. He’s probably best off staying in Texas. The Yankees simply cannot tie this much money to a plus 30 pitcher with back problems.
Pettite had his own physical problems this year and we should assume he’s done as well.
So your rotation is: Sabathia, Hughes, Burnett, Nova. The fifth slot is wide open.
Given the unrealistic price the market places on starting pitching, my advice would be:
1. Keep developing your own pitchers;
2. Sign a bunch of projects cheap and hope one works out (Bedard, for example)(this is a pet peeve — Atlanta and Texas have done a great job pursuing this strategy; the Yanks with all their resources should be stockpiling pitching projects and developing them with good coaching);
3. Sign good relievers (who are still affordable) to make up for an iffy rotation;
4. Consider trading some desirable young players who may become available depending on what other moves the Yanks make (i.e., Robertson, Joba, Gardner, Montero); and
5. Spend the big money on position players as they become available (i.e., Crawford).
Oct 28, 2010 @ 04:15:29
Sabathia gives us 220 innings (cross’d fingers). Hughes might be worth 200 (an extra 20) but 220 would be a pyrrhic victory long term. Assuming we get 200 from AJ (+15)(and some reversion to form). That’s a 1, 3 & 4 starter. Vazquez gave us 157 & Pettite 129 last year. Do we really think Nova can give us 130 innings as a 5th starter? If we resign Pettite and wish really hard that Burnett, Hughes and Nova all come through and Pettite and Sabathia remain healthy. Maybe we don’t need another starter…but thats a stretch. It begs the question …. Which is more valuable, salary flexability for 2012 & beyond or players like Joba, Gardner, etc? And who is the greater risk/reward trade… Jeter for 4/60 or Lee for 5/90?