TwitterSounds Like It’s Up To Johnny
17 Dec 2009
The New York Post is reporting that the Yankees are "close" to signing Nick Johnson with a deal that could be announced Friday.
ESPN is reporting a similar thing, but they note that "a single call from the outfielder (Damon) could change everything."
In other words, it sounds like we are in the final standoff between Damon and the Yankees. Unless Damon blinks and lowers his reported demands (three years and $13 million per) The Yankees are going to sign Nick Johnson. So, let’s take a closer look at Johnson.
The Good: Amazing patience, average 4.36 pitches per plate appearance and got on base at a .426 clip. He fits right into the Yankees’ lineup from that standpoint and makes it even more of a grind for opposing pitchers.
The Bad: Fragile doesn’t even begin to describe him. He played 147 games in 2006, missed all of 2007 and only got into 38 games in 2008. Last year he played in 133 games, the second-highest figure of his career. In addition, he is a firstbaseman by trade, something the Yankees have no real use for and he is a statue on the bases. The Bill James Handbook keeps some great baserunning stats and consider Johnson.
In 2009, he went from 1st-to-3rd 14 times in 40 chances (35%) Second-to-home 9 of 23 (39%) First-to-Home 1 of 9 (18%). In addition, he grounded into a double play 15 times out of 114 chances (13%)
Now compare those numbers to Matsui, a guy we saw lumbering around the bases in 2009. Matsui was 6 for 22 (27%) 8 for 15 (53%) and 4 for 7 (57%) and he only hit into a double play 4 of 96 (4%) of the time.
Yes, you have to take into account things like ballparks, third base coaches, outfield and game compositions, but at least ont he surface, it looks like Matsui might be faster and that is a scary possibility.
The Unknown: What happened to Johnson’s power? In 2006 he hit 23 home runs. In 2009 he hit 8. His doubles also fell from 46 to 24. All this happened with him hitting almost the same percentage of line drives (23% to 22%) yet his BABIP rose to .338 from .320. Will the new place reinflate that power? Your guess is as good as mine.
This all comes down to the contract for me. If the Yankees passed on Matsui at $6.5 million and turned around and gave the same deal to Johnson, I think they made a mistake. If Johnson comes in lower than that with a lot of incentives then it’s a deal I can live with.
Dec 17, 2009 @ 20:43:59
NJs on base % was .426? ?? where does he hit ??who hit in the 2 hole..he can’t run..grandy Ks way too much.. 3 guys to play first, maybe swisher is on the block..i would rather have miranda without question before NJ.. can;t figure CASH out. boras’s ego is too big to be arm twisted..
Dec 18, 2009 @ 09:01:30
I think the Yankees always wanted Damon. Matsui was their bargaining chip to use drop Damon’s demands. When Matsui signed, they lost that leverage, so Johnson became the next chip.
I think they’d prefer to have Damon for 2y, 24M but if he’s going to stick to his 3y, 39M demands, they’ll take Johnson. They would’ve rather had Matsui, but that ship has sailed.
And BORNWITHPINSTRIPES, you’d rather have Miranda, who can’t hit a lefty to save his life, other than Johnson, who has a reverse platoon split? Johnson is an amazing player who just gets hurt a lot. Miranda doesn’t even belong in the same discussion. Plus, you can’t have two guys in your A lineup who can’t hit lefties (Granderson)
He won’t be playing at 1B whatsoever, he’ll be the full-time DH. Hopefully that will eliminate some injury risk. He’ll hit in the 2-hole, and while he’ll be a DP risk due to his hilariously slow speed, he’d be an excellent candidate to lead the league in runs scored hitting behind Jeter and before Tex and A-Rod.
All, of course, if he stays healthy. If not, Swisher DHs and Melky and Gardner are both in the outfield and the Yankees are in trouble.
Dec 18, 2009 @ 11:02:31
Newsday says it’s pretty much a wrap:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/johnson-in-damon-likely-odd-man-out-for-yankees-1.1659829
Dec 18, 2009 @ 14:47:04
Jim, Iseen Miranda play about half a dozen times in person, and what little he played in the bigs.. i didn’t see a problem with him vs LHP.. when up here he got a few clutch hits VS LHP… if i recall correctly..Yes i would give him a shot at DH..Nj , has no future with us, i think we need to find out what our position players have in AAA..cervelli hit .190, in AAA.. look at the job he did …i love the kid , never going to be munson , but better than a lot of other guys we had in the past.And i hope i’m wrong but i never would have traded Ajax Ian Coke for grandy. never. but i want to be wrong.. so why give 5.5 mil for a guy who is very prone to injury.. i think when he was with us he broke his hand swinging.. Peter maybe you can help with that info.. if it were me i would give that spot to montero..just let him hit. and have jorge teach some skill without game action. thanks for the input Jim
Dec 19, 2009 @ 09:21:10
Montero is 20 years old and has all of 40 games in AA… You don’t want to turn him into another Eric Duncan.
And I don’t think the Yankees are looking for a DH with a future with the team. The short-term future of the DH is going to include and increasing amount of Jorge Posada and Derek Jeter as their careers wind down.
Miranda is going to be a fine platoon player somewhere, but DH on the Yankees? A lot of things would have to go wrong with a lot of players before Juan Miranda would find himself DHing on the major league club.