31 Jul 2008
By now we all know there is talk of a 3-way deal between the Red Sox, Pirates and Marlins. The main players involved are Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay and Jeremy Hermida.
The Pirates wind up with Hermida
The Marlins wind up with Ramirez
The Red Sox wind up with Bay.
.299/.398/.529 – 20 HR, 68 RBI, 365 ABs- Ramirez
.282/.375/.519 – 22 HR, 64 RBI, 393 ABs – Bay
Those are their 2008 stats. Pretty similar with Ramirez getting the edge (more production in less at bats). But otherwise, Bay isn’t a significant downgrade based on 2008 alone. Bay is signed through 2009 (approx $9mm in 2009) meaning the Red Sox could either work out an extension with him or let him go (most likely as a type A free agent) and get 2 picks for him.
A look at a larger sample size is a good idea, so lets take the past 5 years (2004-2008):
.303/.401/.573 – 163 HR, 532 RBI, 2419 ABs – Ramirez
.281/.374/.515 – 136 HR, 440 RBI, 2511 ABs – Bay
Again, nod to Ramirez (landslide). But when you factor in age (Bay is 29, Ramirez is 36), and you look at Ramirez’s production last year and this, the trade is a bit more even, but certainly Ramirez is the better hitter. Where the trade potentially swings to the Red Sox favor is defensively, a hustle standpoint and a clubhouse standpoint, all vague and near impossible things to measure to be sure but important nonetheless.
This is a no-win situation for Boston but I think their best move is to get as much as possible in a move for Ramirez. If after taking in offers they feel they are a better team with him, so be it. I’m glad to learn though that they are kicking the tires and if Bay indeed is an option, I’d do it.