26 Nov 2007
That’s right Yankees’ fans, Santana is going to cost a whole lot more than the $20-$25 million a year he is supposedly seeking.
First off you have to pay Santana and don’t forget to add luxury tax dollars to the deal so your $20-$25 million becomes $24-$30 million a season (Yanks get dinged at 40%)
Then, you need to replace Melky Cabrera in center since he is probably the one guy guaranteed to be in the package. Tori Hunter just got $18 million a year from the Angels. The Yankees are not going to go the Bubba Crosby route here and I don’t see Damon switching back to center, especially with health concerns surrounding Giambi and Matsui. So, I would expect them to turn around and sign either Rowand or Jones. That probably costs around $15-$18 ($18-$21.6 million in luxury tax money).
When I look at numbers like that, this trade makes absolutely no sense. Why not just wait until 2009 when he is a free agent? You would have kept your three top prospects, finally determined if Melky is the answer in center (this could be a downside too) and think about the payroll. After 2008, you can subtract the contracts of Giambi, Mussina, Abreu, Pavano, Farnsowrth and Pettitte if he returns. That’s between $64.5 million and $80.5 million depending on Andy. Sure, he could get traded and sign an extension before you get a chance to bid, but that would make the most sense to me.