Curt Schilling

Curt Schilling provided a list of 14 teams, including Boston, that he would consider playing for next season.  Schilling, on his blog 38Pitches, give us insight into the free agency process from a players point of view.  Very interesting.  I have heard/read a lot in the past 24 hours that it is looking like he won’t be back, but he really doesn’t say that and in fact expresses his desire to remain with Boston given the choice.

After Boston, he lists:  Cleveland, Detroit, Anaheim, New York (Mets), Philadelphia, Atlanta, Los Angeles, San Diego, Arizona, Chicago (Cubs),  St. Louis and Milwaukee.

Take a read and decide for yourself.

My take on Schilling is that it would be very nice to have him around next season.  Certainly his season doesn’t warrant another year at $13m, but I would consider $8-10m.  Here are some of the cold hard facts:

  2006 2007
ERA 3.97 3.87
WHIP 1.216 1.245
IP 204 151
H 220 165
BB 28 23
K 183 101
W 15 9
L 7

8

K/BB 6.54 4.39
K/9 8.07 6.02

ERA and WHIP look pretty similar.  What is noticeable is the drop off in innings.  As pitchers get older, it isn’t expected that they will pitch more innings than the year before, so it should be expected that they shouldn’t be paid as much either.  But moving on, His K/BB ratio and K/9 are the most telling stats.  Essentially his K rate has dropped meaning he is getting more of his outs via balls put in play.  While a pitcher can’t control what happens to balls put into play (other than home runs) he can control things by avoiding BB, Hit-by-pitches and by striking out more batters.

Voros McCracken has pioneered Defense Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS) which many teams, probably like the Red Sox, use extensively to evaluate pitchers.  I say the Red Sox probably use it b/c they employed McCracken for a time (I’m not certain if he still works for them or not).  For Schilling, his inability to strike guys out has limited his effectiveness.

Anyway, I’m not sure he will be back, but given his drop in effectiveness, I’d like him back at a reduced rate.  A rate that isn’t going to kill should Schilling get hurt.  Schilling offers some additional perks as well as he is always going to help the young pitchers.  Thoughts?