Conspiracy Theories

David Ortiz has come up with a doozy. According to Ortiz, the Yankees were behind the New York Times report that named him as one of the players who failed the 2003 PED test. According to Ortiz, this was because “The only thing that I can think of, to be honest with you, a lot of big guys from the Yankees were being caught. And no one from Boston.” This is breathtakingly stupid in a number of ways.

1- How did the Yankees leak the information? How could they have gotten it if no other club had it?

2- The New York Times owned a piece of the Red Sox when they published that. I don’t think they were interested in helping the Yankees.

3- The Mitchell Report was written by a director of the Red Sox and commissioned by an owner of the Brewers. If you want a conspiracy theory, maybe that’s why not a single Red Sox or Brewer was named in it?

Ortiz still hasn’t admitted to it or come up with the reason he failed the test, like he said he would years ago.

He is however probably right that the leak came from New York. After all, MLB’s offices are right on Park Avenue in midtown.

A Good Reminder

The Yankees hot start has been exciting to watch, but it has also opened up a dangerous possibility. Would the team look to add players at this year’s deadline in order to win a championship now? If the Yankees are still playing like this in two months, the pressure to do so will be enormous.

So I hope Brian Cashman has archived this series on his DVR. Houston looks very good, and boy can they hit, shredding three Yankee starters, including two who would be part of the playoff roatation.

That’s what I take away from the series, the Yankees don’t have the pitching to compete with the best teams. And with 3/5ths of the rotation already likely to be on the open market after the season, they need to stay away from the lure of short-term rentals to get it. This is a process that won’t be completed in 2017, but patience is always very, very hard for this team. Hopefully, this weekend shows them to just keep their heads down and work with what they have.

The ESPN Factor

Last week ESPN laid off about 100 people. The list included big names like Jason Stark, and people behind the scenes who are not recognizable to the general public. It was a strong signal that the sports landscape is about to change.

ESPN made billions at the sports gravy train. As DVR’s proliferated, ESPN benefitted because they controlled one of the last “DVR-proof” properties- live sports- and they charged advertisers and subscribers massive amounts for it. They also fought very hard to keep those properties, inking enormous rights deals with all the major leagues, except the NHL, and creating things like the Longhorn Network, a channel exclusively devoted to the University of Texas. But then a funny thing happened, technology went beyond the DVR to online streaming services like Netflix and Hulu. Suddenly, people started wondering why they had cable when they could just watch all their shows online and they started canceling it. This was a double whammy for ESPN as they get paid by the cable companies based on their subscribers, and they get paid by the advertisers based on their ratings. Fewer viewers hits both of those revenue streams and that is why 100 people lost their jobs last week. But this is just the start of something that will transform sports.

MLB and the other leagues are going to have to negotiate new TV deals in the future and they are going to have a harder time finding networks willing to shell out money for them. Cable companies, under increasing consumer pressure to lower costs, are going to aggressively question why they are shelling out big bucks for channels that relatively few people actually watch. (It’s true, there are a lot more sports haters than sports fans out there) This means that leagues are going to see a pretty significant loss in revenue from TV. And while things like MLB.com can certainly make some of that up, it’s worth remembering that MLB receives about $1.5-billion a year in TV rights right now. That’s 15-million subscribers at $100 a pop, or a higher number of subscribers than average viewers of the 2015 World Series, so don’t count on it.

This will have a profound affect on team revenues, but also on team valuations which are essentially multiples of those revenues. Payrolls should decrease and ticket prices will probably have to as well, as ticket sales and concessions become a bigger part of the revenue that teams earn. All of that could be a good result for the average fan. But, owners are not going to like this one bit. And owners who spent billions, only to see the revenues they based those investments on dry up, are going to agressively look to replace those revenues and that means new stadiums and expansion. I would expect that as the TV revenues shrink, owners will look to the taxpayer to give them better ballparks and new owners to give them fat expansion fees. So we could end up with a lot more teams in a lot of terrible locations, all to keep owners happy.

Teams would be smart to be very, very cautious throwing money around in the next few years because the future doesn’t look as bright as it once did.

Dial it Down

Aaron Judge may be the best story in baseball right now. He has amazing power and he is showing it prolifically, but unfortunately people are getting stupid with their comparisoions and need to stop.

Judge isn’t Jeter or, and I can’t believe I have to say this, Mantle. Jeter was 22 when he broke in and Mantle was 19. Judge is 25. He could still improve, but 3,000 hits or 500 homers are very, very, unlikely so let’s set the expectations a bit lower.

Judge looks like he could be a very good player for the next decade and the best Yankee rightfielder since Dave Winfield. That would make him “better” than Paul O’Neill, which should be more than enough for Yankee fans. The immortal Yankees are safe, everyone else is in play. Let’s just enjoy it.

Managing Mystery

I have no problem with what Joe Girardi did in the tenth inning today, my problem is with what he did in the ninth inning. Let’s go through it.

The Yankees entered the seventh trailing 4-2. Girardi went to his usual guy for the seventh, Tyler Clippard. They entered the eight in the same sport and Girardi did the same thing, calling on Betances. They entered the ninth in the same spot and here is where Girardi went off the rails bringing in Mitchell.

He had already used Holder, Clippard, and Betances, and Warren was not available, so there are three pitchers left in the pen- Chapman, Layne, and Mitchell. Choosing Mitchell is the absolute wrong choice of the three. Pick Chapman, your best choice for a clean inning, and you hope to score two in the ninth and tie things. Choose Layne, a guy who can only go one inning, and hope he gets you through the ninth still trailing by two. But choosing Mitchell, your only long guy in the pen locks you into a quandary. If you tie the game, but don’t win it, what then?

Girardi correctly determined that Chapman was the best chance to get through the tenth and have a chance to win it. The problem was, he had already used Mitchell and Layne couldn’t give him multiple innings. So he got creative and moved Mitchell to first. That allowed him to use Mitchell as a pitcher again later in the game, but cost him his DH, and current first baseman, Chris Carter. It was a creative solution, but one he could have avoided by thinking a couple of steps ahead in the 9th inning.

But in the bigger picture, the Yankees are 15-8. That’s about as great a start as anyone could have imagined.

A Fortunate Flip

I watched tonight as the Yankees dug a 9-1 hole. I stopped watching there and turned to other things. So I was shocked when I pulled the game up on my IPad later that night and found out that it was tied at 11 and the Yankees had runners on in the tenth.

A quick flip of the channel gave me one of the greatest rewards I have had as a Yankee fan. Holliday parked it, and we celebrated our best win of the season.

A Pitching Clinic-UPDATED

It finally happened, the Yankees and Red Sox played a game in under three hours. All it took were two of the best pitched games you will see.

Chris Sale was better, at least until his manager made him try the 9th inning when he was looking a bit gassed in the 8th, But Tanaka got the win because he kept the Red Sox off balance all night. Their biggest threat was a runner on second with 1 out, and Tanaka retired the final 14-straight.

So the Yankees take the abbreviated series and now have the first place Orioles coming for a visit. It should be an exciting weekend.

UPDATE Never had heard this used before, but a complete game shutout that takes under 100 pitches, is apparently called a “Maddox” in honor of the great Greg Maddox. Tanaka got earned that tonight.

All Rise

Aaron Judge had a pretty good 25th-birthday. He hit a pretty nice opposite-field homer and added a great catch diving into the stands. Chapman came close to throwing it all away, but the Yankees prevailed 3-1.

I want to gripe about replay. Judge’s play in the stands was an easy call to miss as an umpire, but also an easy call to reverse upon viewing a replay. For whatever reason, it took a long time for the MLB replay crew to reach the right conclusion.

Here’s my idea, have a lot of people watching the games in the “pod” in NYC and reviewing any close play before a replay challenge is made. Yes, you would be reviewing calls that may never be challenged, but hopefully you would cut down on the interminable time it takes to review and adjudicate a call which seems to be an easy one on replay. If MLB is serious about speeding up games, they have to speed up replay.

Lastly, a word about Luis Severino. A night like tonight shows you why the Yankees think he can be a frontline starter. His development will be one of the most important things to watch in 2017.

A Bad Look for the Red Sox

Dustin Pedroia is right, the Red Sox certainly did mishandle the Manny Machado situation in Baltimore this past weekend.   Specifically, he threw his teammate and manager under the bus.

While I don’t necessarily expect him to approve of a retaliatory pitch against the Baltimore slugger, I do expect him to act as though he approves of it.

There’s no doubt Pedroia is one of the clubhouse leaders for the Red Sox and his word carries some weight, but to publicly denounce Matt Barnes’ action and tell Machado that he, Pedroia, had nothing to do with it, is a very bad look and feel for this team.  Of course, all of those concerned came out today and told us all was well, but if I’m Barnes, I’d be steamed.  Farrell?  Who cares what he says, he is the biggest polisher of garbage there is.

This is one of those make or break moments for a clubhouse.  If a division occurs, you can certainly point to this moment.  Pedroia isn’t necessarily one to care what others think, so if he didn’t convince Barnes and perhaps others that his intent wasn’t to alienate, this could be trouble.

 

Big Series?-UPDATED

The Yankees head to Fenway tonight for a three-game set with the two teams separated by just a half-game in the standings. So, you could make the case this is a big series. But, it is April. And no matter what happens, I am pretty sure that the team that loses his series will be able to recover over the final 144 games. So, I would say no, but I think there are some very interesting things to watch.

1- Judge and Bird at Fenway. Bird has played thre before, but he is off to a bad start and needs to get going. Judge is tailor-made to do damage at Fenway. The most impressive power I have ever seen there was the 1999 home run derby when McGwire was hitting moon shots over the monster. (sidenote, Andy and I were there in person and may have started a rumor that the state police were closing the Mass Pike because they were afraid balls would hit cars). Judge has some amazing power and could send a ball well into the night.

2. Sale versus Tanaka. Andy is ready to build a statue of Sale on Yawkey Way And Sale has dominated the Yankees in his career. Meanwhile, Tanaka has scuffled against Boston. Will this be the mismatch it appears to be?

3- How does Girardi manage these games? Is he going to treat them as bigger than a usual April game? By using Betances and Chapman for multiple innings maybe? Or will the fact that the Yankees have first place Baltimore on the schedule next, keep these at April intensity?

4- Severino in Fenway, part 2. He got shellacked there in his first try last August. Can he do better this time?

5- Which Yankee will Matt Barnes unnecessarily head hunt? I kid, I kid. Enjoy the games!

UPDATE We have a rain out, so we are going to have to wait for the series to start, and only see two games this week. The game will be made up as part of a day-night doubleheader on July 16th.