The Odds Don’t Compute

24 May 2013

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I think the Yankees need to consider an exorcism quickly. It’s pretty rare that you see a hitter get hurt when getting hit on the hands by a pitch. Curtis Granderson suffered that type of injury in the second game of spring training and only came back last week. Tonight, he did it AGAIN and has a broken pinkie. No word on a timetable for his return.

As if that wasn’t enough of a freak occurrence, David Phelps had to leave the game tonight after getting hit on his pitching arm by a batted ball back to the box.

I fully suspect that tomorrow’s game will be postponed because of a plague of locusts. (And yes, I know the game is inside.)

 

By: Category: Yankees

Change Of Persepctive

23 May 2013

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A year or so ago everyone in Yankeeland was screaming about the trade of Michael Pineda for Jesus Montero. Pineda was headed for shoulder surgery and Montero was a big league catcher. Now Montero has been demoted to the minors while Pineda is apparently throwing 95-mph in extended spring training.

I said it before and I will say it again, you can’t judge this trade until years have gone by. I think the fairest thing to say about it is that Montero simply didn’t fit the 2012 or 2013 Yankees. Sure, his bat looked like a huge asset, but where was that bat going to play? You can read this post about Montero’s demotion, I think it makes it very clear that he is not a viable big league catcher. The Yankees obviously were never going to come right out and say that, but they did tip their hand back in September of 2011 when they had Austin Romine fly across the country at the last minute so they could avoid putting Montero behind the plate. So, I think the Yankees did a smart thing and cashed in on Montero when his value was at its peak. They got a very good pitcher, who got hurt, and a very good prospect, who also got hurt. Both are on the way back and we may yet see a day when people say the Yankees “won” this trade. One thing is for sure, if Montero had been in pinstripes the past 14 months and posted the same .252/.293/.377 line he has with Seattle, plenty of fans would have screamed about how overrated he was. GM’s really do have a thankless job.

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I think it was a very good sign that Curtis Granderson looked like Curtis Granderson again last night. There are too many nights when the Yankees simply have too many dead spots in the lineup. Ichiro has doing nothing. Gardner is about what we expected him to be (maybe a little low in the OBP category). Wells was amazing in April, but has cooled considerably in May. So has Travis Hafner. The Yankees need Granderson just like they need Teixeira. The subs did some amazing things over the first quarter of the season, but it is time for the stars to earn their paychecks.

By: Category: Yankees Tags: , , , , ,

Remember This One?

20 May 2013

7 Comments

I may be dating myself, but the Yankees-Orioles brawl from 1998 is seared into my memory.

I was actually at Fenway that night with the guy from the other side of the blog. As my memory recalls it, the Red Sox got beat up early and we decided to avail ourselves of one of the finest bars in that area- Jillians. Jillians had the two things guaranteed to suck in a 20-something male- plentiful beer and a huge TV. As I remember it, the TV was actually 16 smaller TV’s that could enlarge a picture to a ridiculous level. (Remember HDTV wasn’t a thing back then.) Being a weeknight with the Red Sox game still ongoing, we had the run of the place and we shot some pool while I got the servers to put the Yankees game on the big TV. (This was quite an accomplishment in 1990′s Boston.)

Watching that video now brings that all back and so much more. Look at Jeter with hair! Look at Andy Pettitte looking like a teenager. How about Joe Girardi mixing it up? Then again, I look at a picture of myself from that same year and realize that time hasn’t been generous to any of us.

1998 was such a special year for Yankees’ fans, but that memory has never left me. Another one is much better though. Back at Fenway, September 9th, 1998, I sat with Andy and the Yankees clinched the AL East. I didn’t leave early that night, in fact I stood on my seat and cheered the greatest team I have ever seen in person.

By: Category: Yankees

Send Me Your Hitless, Your Gloveless, Your Rockies….

18 May 2013

2 Comments

The Yankees like players who have been let go by Colorado. Remember who caught the last out in 1996? Why none other than Charlie Hayes (Rockie 1993 and 1994). Who came off the scrap heap to go 7-3 with a 2.85ERA in 2005? Shawn Chacon (Rockie 2001 to 2005) Why this season alone we have Jason Nix (Rockie 2008) and Chris Nelson (DFA’ed by the Rockies this year.) So the acquisition of Reid Brignac from Colorado shouldn’t be a surprise. Brignac was acquired for $75,000 and comes onto the roster in place of Alberto (I was never a Rockie) Gonzalez.

It’s not a bad move. Gonzalez was a fine fielder (and a decent mopup reliever) but he was a no-hitting shortstop. In his place comes Brignac, who can’t hit either, but can play anywhere on the infield besides first and even in the outfield in a pinch. So more positional flexibility for $75,000 is a trade you have to make.

The person who should worry in my mind is Eduardo Nunez. He hasn’t hit a lick this year and hasn’t been able to stay healthy. Lyle Overbay has been a very nice pickup, but the Yankees can’t really carry him, Hafner and Teixeira on the same roster unless they have some other guys on the bench who can cover a lot of positions. In Nix and Brignac, you suddenly have that. So maybe Nunez gets sent back to Scranton when he is healthy enough to play with the mandate to show some offensive chops if he want back in the majors?

Then of course the Rockies might DFA another guy tomorrow, so we should probably just wait and see.

 

By: Category: Yankees Tags: , , , , , ,

Jacoby Ellsbury

17 May 2013

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What was supposed to be a highly productive season for Jacoby Ellsbury, has been anything but.  Ellsbury is on the cusp of unrestricted free agency and his agent is Scott Boras.  Generally the combination of those two things equals money in the bank for a player.

The problem for Ellsbury has been that he has been terrible this year.  He has a .683 OPS.  Yes he has 12 steals, but his .323. OBP means he really shouldn’t be a lead-off hitter.  And if Ellsbury isn’t leading off, his value is dramatically reduced.

In the off-season, the idea that he was a $20mm a year players was tossed about with even his biggests critics saying they’d pay him $12mm a year for 4-5 years.  But if Ellsbury doesn’t turn this ship around, he’ll be lucky to get $6mm a year for 2-3 years.  With Ellsbury, the promise is always there and this will probably help him this off-season.  After all, it was just 2011 that he put together an amazing offensive display, but that was then.

Consider his OPS tallies in seasons he played everyday and was healthy (i.e. 2008, 2009, 2011 and 2013 to date):

2008: .729

2009: .770

2011: .928

2013: .683

Now his injury plagued seasons and rookie campaign:

2007: .902 (127 PAs)

2010: .485 (only 84 PAs)

2012: .682 (in 323 PAs)

If you were a GM, would you pay this guy $20mm?  $14mm?  I wouldn’t.  First off, he can’t stay healthy and secondly, his 2011 season is worlds apart from anything else he has done.  It makes no sense.

Now Boras will spin Ellsbury into something he isn’t and I’m sure some team will pay him far more than he is worth.  I just hope it isn’t the Red Sox, but I do hope Ellsbury puts together a strong run so the Red Sox can get more when the time comes to trade him this year.

By: Category: Red Sox Tags:

Night(s) in the Ruts

16 May 2013

2 Comments

Many have said of the Red Sox early season success that it will be interesting to see how they deal with adversity.  Well, adversity as at their door.

What started as a stacked bullpen has been seen Joel Hanrahan lost for the season, an ineffectual and always odd, Alfredo Aceves sent down to Pawtucket.  Daniel Bard hasn’t found his form and Andrew Bailey has spent a few weeks on the DL.  Add to it the offense, save for last night’s outburst, that has been horrendous of late, has led to a 3-9 performance over the last 12 games.

The Red Sox benefited from a relatively light schedule at the beginning of the year.  That’s not to take away from the AL East, but let’s face it, all AL East teams have their significant question marks:  The Yankees are loaded with injuries (yet have been winning nonetheless…as always), the Blue Jays imported a bunch of talent that didn’t do anything last year, the Orioles, well, they just seem to play better baseball than they should and the Rays are always hamstrung by a low payroll.  Sprinkle in games against Houston and Cleveland and the schedule wasn’t too tough, baseball-reference.com has them as an average strength of schedule.  Things, however, got tough when they traveled to Texas and got swept.  That’s when the wheels came off.

It’ll be very interesting to see how the Red Sox deal with the next 10-15 games.  With Andrew Bailey set to return, hopefully the bullpen will settle down a bit and hopefully the starters, other than Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, can offer up a few innings.  Ryan Dempster has probably pitched better than his record, but he is still 2-4.  The good news is the Sox are still 6 games over .500 and are very much in the mix in the AL East and Wildcard.

Ben Cherington has to be wondering if they are going to be buyers or sellers in a couple of months.  My original prediction of 82-88 wins is still in range.  A 6 game swing/margin in a prediction is somewhat lame, I know, but I guess my point is that they could be average to borderline wildcard.  They are currently projected to win 88.1 games according to coolstandings.com, so I’m not totally off and of course I would be the happiest person on Earth if they came in above 88 wins.

If the Red Sox do stay competitive, it will be very tough for Cherington to sell off parts, but let’s face it, this is not a World Series team.  I think their pitching is fine, but their lack of offense lately is worrisome.  Where has it gone for the last 12 games?  12 games!!!  Cherington will be best served selling off various pieces/parts to better prepare the Red Sox for 2014.

Tomorrow: Let’s talk about Jacoby Ellsbury.

By: Category: Red Sox Tags: , ,

As The Roster Turns

15 May 2013

5 Comments

The Yankees have made a flurry of transactions the last few days and its likely that they won’t stop anytime soon.

Vidal Nuno got sent down and Brett Marshall got called up. Nuno pitched five innings in the doubleheader Monday and they wanted a fresh arm in the bullpen. Plus, they don’t need Nuno to start right now so he is better off staying stretched out in the minors.

Nunez was put on the DL with Alberto Gonzalez, who they acquired from the Cubs two days earlier was recalled. In order to free roster space on the 40-man, Mark Teixeira was moved to the 60-day DL. Gonzalez probably has a future with the team until Youkilis or Nunez is ready to return. Then he will be dumped on the scrap heap.

Brennan Boesch got sent down to the minors and Curtis Granderson got activated from the DL. Unless someone gets hurt, Boesch’s future is in AAA.

David Adams was promoted to the majors and Chris Nelson got DFA’ed. Nelson had a 10-game career with the Yankees and didn’t do much. Adams is a homegrown prospect and will probably stick around until Youkilis is ready to return.

The Yankees sent Joba and Caesar Cabral on minor league rehab assignments which means they will need to be activated in the next 30 days. Joba is reportedly very close to being activated, so expect that move (probably Marshall) imminently. Cabral will have to be on the 25-man roster or returned to the Red Sox. If he pitches well in the minors, the Yankees will have to figure out a way to get him onto the 40-man roster and the 25-man.

But the real crunch is going to come as all of the players on the 60-day DL return from injury and the Yankees have to open spots on the 40-man for each of them. Right now the Yankees have 6 players on the 60-day and five of them are going to be activated when they are ready (Teixeira, Jeter, A-Rod, Cervelli and Pineda) Cabral is the last guy as noted above.

How will the Yankees manage it? Well, Ben Francisco is an easy cut, but he is the only one. As the roster is currently constructed, the Yankees don’t have a lot of good choices. When Teixeira returns the Yankees probably DFA a productive player in Lyle Overbay since its hard to see them carrying a backup first baseman and Travis Hafner. And it only gets harder from there.

Of course there can always be setbacks for injured players and new injuries for healthy players, but if not, things will get very interesting.

By: Category: Yankees

Betances to the Pen

10 May 2013

1 Comment

Joel Sherman is reporting that the Yankees are moving Dellin Betances to the bullpen. As Sherman notes, the reason for this is that Betances doesn’t have an option next year and must make the big league roster or be exposed to waivers. Since he still can’t control his stuff as a starter (16BB’s in 24IP this year after 99 last year) the Yankees are going to see how his 95-mph pitching works in the bullpen. Maybe they get a reliever, but they wanted so much more.

It’s a good lesson about prospects and their value. You either have to use them or you can lose them in a blink of an eye. After 2011, I don’t think anyone in the Yankees’ organization would have traded either Betances or Banuelos, but not Betances is a reliever and Banuelos is hurt. Jesus Montero has a .609 OPS in Seattle after putting up a .685 one last year. The guy he was traded for is still trying to work his way back from injury. Yankees’ fans will never forget Jay Buhner for Ken Phelps, but today is another reminder of how rarely “Jay Buhners” work out.

By: Category: Yankees Tags: , , ,

Good Idea

4 May 2013

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The Yankees had Jason Nix working on playing first before the game today. That is an excellent idea.

Consider Lyle Overbay. On the surface, his numbers are pedestrian- .239/.280/.443. But then look at his splits. Versus RHP he has hit .306/.351/.581. Against lefties, he is 2-for-26 with no walks, one extra-base hit and six K’s.

Consider Nix. He has bad numbers overall- .239/.286/.296. But against LHP he has put up a line of .243/.316/.419 in his career.

Put them together and you have a decent platoon. And with Chris Nelson on board, the Yankees can afford to shift Nix over to first and at least see what happens. It’s not a conventional approach, but considering the situation they are in, its the best one they have.

By: Category: Yankees

Interesting Move

1 May 2013

1 Comment

The Yankees just announced during the postgame show that they have acquired Chris Nelson from the Rockies for cash considerations or the infamous Player To Be Named Later. Nelson is a 27-year old, right-handed infielder who has played second, third and even a bit of short in the majors. In order to make room for him on the 40-man, they moved Cervelli to the 60-day DL, which means we won’t see him until the end of June at the earliest.

There is little downside to this move from a Yankees’ standpoint. Nelson was once considered the best prospects in baseball. In fact he was taken 9th overall in the 2004 draft. While he hasn’t panned out, he did hit .301/.352/.458 in 377 AB’s for Colorado last year. He also has similar OPS’s against LHP (.732) as against RHP (.740).

So how did the Yankees get him you ask? The answer is that there are two serious questions about his game. First, he is not a strong defender and that may be putting it too mildly. In just under 1,000 innings at third in the majors he has a .931 fielding percentage and 19 errors. Like advanced defensive metrics? Nelson had a -26.5 UZR/150 games last year. That’s 8 runs worse than the next to worst player at third. Secondly, his bat may very well only work in Coors Field. For his career he has put up an .824 OPS at Coors versus a .640 one on the road.

But again, what’s the downside?  Youkilis is on the shelf with a bad back. Jason Nix was hitting .219/..261/.266 coming into tonight’s game and simply can’t hit right-handed pitching. Nelson is young enough that he could surprise and the Yankees do have three games coming up in Colorado. If he works good for the Yankees. If not, Matt Adams can be added to the roster as of May 15th. Welcome another player from the scrap heap to the roster.

By: Category: Yankees Tags: , ,
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