Enjoy This

When I was growing up I always felt like I had missed the greatest moments and players in Yankee history. I would look out at all the pennants and think about growing up in New York in the 1940′s, 50′s and 60′s when the Yankees went to an amazing 15-out of- 18 World Series and won 10 titles. I would dream of seeing Ruth or Gehrig take a swing, DiMaggio fly around the bases or Mantle hit one into the seats. I loved the teams I grew up with and some of the players, but I felt like I had missed the best part of the franchise. I was wrong.

As great as those players and those teams were, what we have seen in the past twenty seasons has been just as amazing. Yes, there are more playoff spots, but making the playoffs in 17-of-20 years is something only the Yankees have done. They have won five World Series, three of those consecutively and gone to seven. This has been an era of amazing success.

At the center of this era is Derek Jeter. Too much time is spent cataloguing the things Jeter can’t do, or didn’t do. Not enough time is spent appreciating what he is. He is a guy who for twenty seasons never shied from the spotlight, never acted anything but professionally, and never took a play off. He will leave the game with more hits than all but five players in MLB history- Rose, Cobb, Aaron, Musial and Speaker. I won’t argue that Jeter was better than any specific former Yankee, but he is as worthy of induction into Monument Park as any of them.

In the next week or so, the Yankees will be officially eliminated from the playoffs. That means we all have thirteen games left to see Jeter play and appreciate all he has meant for this team.  That’s what I plan to do, watch each at bat, hope for a few more liners to right and just appreciate a guy who played the game the way you want it to be played. It’s the end of an era, but don’t mourn its passing just yet. Enjoy the last few moments.

That Was Fun

Last night was a game that provided something that has been missing too often this season- fun. It’s always fun to beat Boston, but to do it after trailing in the ninth is even better. But as enjoyable as last night was, it won’t mean a thing if the Yankees can’t follow it up with a stretch of winning baseball

That has been the frustrating thing about this team, they simply can’t run off a hot streak. While the reasons for that are fairly obvious (no hitting, decimated pitching) the Yankees have to change that calculus if they want to make the playoffs. With 24 games remaining, they are four out of a playoff spot. In addition, they have to play better than not only Detroit, but Seattle, which is 3.5-games ahead of them. If both teams play .500 ball the rest of the way (no sure bet) the Yankees would need at least 88 wins to tie one of them for the final playoff spot.

That is going to require a finishing sprint of 16-8 from the Yankees. Not impossible, but not likely based on what we have seen so far. But, they had a “springboard” win last night. Now we have to see if it gets them going.

Bat Jeter In Every Spot!

We have reached the portion of the Yankee season when hope is almost extinguished and columnists need to fill their blank spaces with something more than the same drivel day after day. So, we have the drumbeat of how the Yankees have to demote Jeter from the second spot in the lineup.

Let me start by saying that Jeter should not have been hitting second this year to begin with, but to pretend that switching the lineup now is gong to radically change things is silly. There is only about 16% of the season left and batting order is basically about dividing up playing time. Here are some numbers from 2009, in that year the average #2 spot in an AL lineup had 743 plate appearances. The 9th spot in the lineup had 618. That means that on average, the #2 spot came up 4.59 times a game and the #9 spot came up 3.81- a difference of 0.78 times a game. That means that over the final 26 games, hitting Jeter 9th (which the Yankees would never do) instead of 2nd would bring him to the plate 20 fewer times. Would those 20 plate appearances really change the fortunes of the team? And, 20 is the maximum. Dropping Jeter to sixth (a more likely outcome) would only reduce his plate appearances by about 10.

This is a team five-games out of a playoff spot. Thinking that a difference of 10 or 20 plate appearances will change that is foolish. Yes, Jeter shouldn’t be hitting second. But, that’s not what is going to cause the Yankees to miss the playoffs this year.

It Was Twenty Years Ago Today…

That the MLB players started a strike that would ultimately wipe out the 1994 season. It’s amazing to think how far baseball has come since that day.

When the strike happened, Bobby Bonilla was the highest paid player in the game at $6.3-million. That’s approximately what the Yankees are paying Ichiro Suzuki this year to be their fourth outfielder. Annual revenue was about $1.9 billion for all of baseball in 1994. Today it is close to $9-billion.  Not surprisingly, average ticket prices have almost tripled from about $10 to nearly $30. (It’s worth noting that inflation since 1994 has been about 61%, so MLB revenues and salaries are far, far ahead.)

Back in 1994 George Steinbrenner was trying to bully NYC into building a stadium in Manhattan for the Yankees while also threatening a move to New Jersey. Ultimately, he got massive tax breaks and other incentives for building a palace in the Bronx. Sadly, that’s what most of the MLB owners have done.

So when you hear the powers of MLB mention how wonderful the labor peace of the past twenty years has been, just remember who really paid for it.

 

Waiving Goodbye

The Yankees are waiving goodbye to Matt Thornton. Let me explain.

Because the non-waiver trade deadline has passed, teams need to pass a player through waivers before trading him. Starting with the team with the worst record in the same league as the club requesting waivers, every team gets the option to claim a player put on waivers. If claimed, the parent club can either pull the player back, or simply let the player go to the new team. That’s what the Yankees have done with Matt Thornton, letting the Nationals take him for the price of the claim. (50k I believe)

Why are they doing that? Two reasons I can think of. First, Thornton has been perfectly adequate as a lefty specialist, but he is 37-years old and has pitched 24 innings. Second, they have some younger arms who might be a lot better. In the MLB Draft this year, the Yankees took a lefty reliever named Jacob Lindgren with their first pick. He is shooting up the system, reaching high-A already and Jim Callis at Baseball America predicted he would be the first player from the 2014 draft to reach the majors.

Ahead of him you have two arms- James Pazos and Tyler Webb. Pazos, was selected in the 2012 draft and is at AA. Webb, selected last year, is at AAA. It wouldn’t be a shock to see either of them show up in the majors this year and Lindgren might even make it.

For now, the Yankees will let Rich Hill take a crack at the job. He had been in the Red Sox minor leagues before getting traded to and released by Anaheim.  Hill takes the spot, the kids continue to build and the Yankees save some money on the Thornton contract. Nice work Mr. Cashman.

Another One Bites The Dust

We now know the reason the Yankees picked up Chris Capuano- David Phelps had elbow soreness. Sunday that soreness was bad enough that he had to leave the game. Today he is on the DL.

The Yankees started the year with a rotation of Sabathia, Kuroda, Nova, Tanaka and Pineda. When Nova got hurt they put Phelps into the rotation. When Pineda went down they turned Nuno. We have seen Whitley, Greene, McCarthy, and Capuano start and chances are we will see another person start when Phelps’ turn comes up next time. Perhaps we should stop wondering why the Yankees won’t rebuild and take a moment to appreciate the fact that a team with these injuries is still in contention for a playoff spot.

But instead of trotting out another replacement, what if the Yankees turned to Michael Pineda for Friday’s start? Yes, he just had his first rehab start and yes, he only threw 58 pitches. But this is crunch time and I would be that 70 pitches from a rehabbing Pineda are probably going to be a lot more effective than 100 pitches from someone like Chase Whitley. The other option is that the Yankees find another arm on the trade market.

Maybe Pineda is simply not ready, that could definitely be the case. The Yankees don’t want to risk hurting him again, but pitching the likes of Matt Daley is akin to surrendering a game- something the Yankees aren’t in a position to do right now.

Deadline Thoughts

Let’s start with the immediate picture. Are the Yankees better today than yesterday? I would say yes. Steven Drew has suffered through a terrible start to 2014, but he has hit better of late (.781 OPS in July vs. .360OPS in June) and he is a good defensive player. I know he has never played second, but good shortstops can usually play other positions on the infield without much problems. He is replacing Brian Roberts who didn’t hit and didn’t field, so the bar is low.

Martin Prado is a guy the Yankees have been trying to find for years- a guy who can play multiple positions, but still hit at an average level. Solarte, Nunez, Pena, Nix, they have gone through a number of guys and failed to find a Prado. So he is a good asset to have.

The prices they paid were right. Kelly Johnson had no future with the Yankees. Peter O’Brien has massive power, but also massive holes in his swing from all reports. He’ 24 and has a sub-.300 OBP in AA, that’s a guy who cannot be considered a great prospect. He doesn’t have the tools to stick at catcher and there are questions about his ability to play first or right. In some ways, he is a much lesser version of Montero, so I don’t think he will be missed.

But let’s step back for a minute and think about these moves and the addition of Headley. Basically, they added three infielders  to a team that hasn’t lost any infielders since the season started. (Sure Kelly Johnson was on the DL, but he would have been back next week.) Basically, the Yankees confirmed with those moves what most of us knew all along- they did a terrible job of building an infield this offseason. They didn’t have a backup first baseman when their primary guy was coming back from wrist surgery. They tried to use a guy at second who hasn’t played a full season since 2009. They tried to use Kelly Johnson as something more than a bench bat. These are failures of planning and the Yankees had far too many of them. You cannot blame the Yankees for not being prepared for losing 4/5th’s of their rotation- no team is ready for that hit. But what happened on the infield this season was easy to see ahead of time and should not have forced them to scramble in July. Brian Cashman’s contract ends this season and if I were Hal my first question to him would be what happened in the farm system followed by what was the infield plan for 2014.

We can argue about whether or not the Yankees should have followed the Red Sox plan from yesterday, but we also know they never were going to. Not when they were above .500 and only 3 games out of a playoff spot. Knowing that, the best you could have hoped for was what happened. They tried to improve, but not at the expense of the 2015 Yankees. It is most likely not enough to get them into the playoffs and, considering the upgrades in Oakland and Detroit, nowhere near enough to win the AL. But they get an A for effort. The heavy lifting will come in November.

 

 

Red Sox Overhaul

In the 2 days leading up to MLB’s trade deadline, the Red Sox traded away 4 pitchers and one bat.

The Red Sox unloaded 60% of their opening day starting rotation, they unloaded a great situational lefty and they unloaded an overpaid shortstop. If you go back a full week they have unloaded 80% of their starting rotation as they also moved Jake Peavy.

Let’s start with the starters. In Jon Lester they got rid of the ace of their staff and in return received Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes has great right-handed power, but little plate discipline and hits for a poor average, he is very good in the outfield however. Because they only control Cespedes through 2015, I don’t think the Red Sox got enough in return for Lester, especially when you consider all the work they’re going to need to do to be competitive in 2015. Cespedes could just walk after 2015, basically 1.4 year rental.

The Red Sox also moved John Lackey to the St. Louis Cardinals exchange for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly. Craig is having one of his worst seasons as a major leaguer and has a .437 OPS over the past 28 days. Joe Kelly’ has been working out of the bullpen although has made starts in his career, but I’m not sure he fits in the Red Sox rotation. Craig will also struggle to find a position unless the Res Sox out him in left and Cespedes in right.

For Felix Doubront, whom they traded yesterday, the Red Sox are receiving a player to be named later.

In return for trading Andrew Miller to the Orioles, the Red Sox received another left-hander I know nothing about but who is considered the O’s 3rd best prospect.

Lastly, and what I considered to be their best trade, they traded Stephen Drew to the Yankees in exchange for Kelly Johnson. A pure salary dump. The best part about this trade is that it allows the Xander Bogaerts to move back to shortstop. Apparently the Red Sox are sending money to NY to even up the money, and because Johnson is on the DL, he might turn out to be a player to be named later.

Where Cespedes will play, where Craig will play, and if Kelly Johnson will play, all remain a mystery. One thing is for sure, the Red Sox are done for 2014 and are clearly looking ahead. But given some of the veterans they acquired, it seems like they’re trying to make a run for next year but I really don’t think they can rebuild the starting rotation that quickly.

They do have a logjam of starting pitching prospects in the minors so they will probably end up packaging a few of those to get established major-league pitchers for the rotation for 2015.

For the rest of this year I see an infield of Napoli at first base, Pedroia at second base, Middlebrooks at third-base, and Xander Bogaerts at shortstop. In the outfield I like to see Craig in left field, Bradley in center, and Cespedes in right. With Vasquez catching and Ortiz DH.

Trade Deadline Blog-Updated

I figured I would get things started a bit earlier than usual on what is an annual tradition. Plus, we have a big deal. The Red Sox have sent Jon Lester  and Gomes to Oakland for Cespedes and a competitive balance pick.

I think you evaluate this trade when you see where Lester ends up after the season. If he signs back in Boston, this is a great move by them. If he doesn’t, I don’t like this move much. Cespedes hits home runs, but he doesn’t get on base and his average leaves much to be desired. His defense is excellent, so there’s that, but his speed has disappeared. Plus, he is only signed through 2015, so they are getting a player they control for a long time. It’s not a terrible return for a guy who is an impending free agent, but I don’t understand why the Red Sox didn’t sign Lester to an extension. I also think Lester is much more likely to go somewhere else this offseason now. He won’t have the draft pick attached to him and he will get big, and I mean big, offers.

Now, if I were the Yankees, I would look at the rotation Oakland has put together and think twice about trying to win the World Series this year. Nothing is decided in July, but on paper that is a heck of a pitching staff.

More as news happens.

12:41pm- Jon Heyman reporting the Red Sox have traded John Lackey to the Cardinals for a “pitcher and a position player”.

12:44pm- Meanwhile, John Danks is warming up to make his start for Chicago. He had been a name mentioned in a lot of trade rumors.

12;49pm- Red Sox getting Joe Kelly and Allen Craig for Lackey

12:46pm- Joel Sherman points out the Red Sox have now traded three of the guys who started games in the 2013 World Series for them.

12:50pm- Craig is an interesting bet by Boston. He is hitting a lot more ground balls than he did before 2014, but his line drive rate is still good.

2:38pm- Reports are that the Rays are “close” to trading David Price. No word yet on where he is headed.

2:56pm- Jon Morosi reporting that trade of Andrew Miller to Detroit has “fallen apart”

3:03pm- Multiple sources say Miller is going to Baltimore.

3:11pm- Orioles sending Eduardo Rodriguez, a 22-year old lefty from AA to Boston.

3:15pm- To the shock of no one, Ken Rosenthal is reporting there is “no chance” the Yankees get David Price.

3:26pm- Yankees have claimed Esmil Rogers off of waivers and released Scott Sizemore. The pennant is ours!

3:29pm- I have to digress here, but the point of Moneyball wasn’t the idea that OBP is the secret to winning baseball, it was that OBP was incredibly undervalued by baseball people. The Moneyball guys realized that once everyone caught on, OBP would become overvalued and they moved on to other things. Right now, the “Moneyball” secret seems to be prospects. Teams are putting tremendous values on them. Anyway, back to the deadline.

3:33pm- Reports are David Price trade will be a three-team trade. No names or teams yet. Joel Sherman reports he will be traded and has heard Seattle and Detroit as possible teams.

3:36pm- Jason Stark reporting the Yankees are “out” on Marlon Byrd.

3:43pm- This is interesting, Gordon Edes is reporting that Steven Drew is headed to the Yankees. This would be the first trade between the clubs since Mike Stanley I believe. In that trade, the Yankees have up Tony Armas, Jr., a key piece in the Red Sox’s trade for Pedro.

3:44pm- Buster Olney confirming the report of Drew.

3:46pm- Can’t imagine the Yankees gave up anything of value for a guy hitting .176. Bigger question on Drew is where exactly is he going to play? Last I checked, the Yankees filled their hole at third and have a shortstop. So maybe second?

3:48pm- Rosenthal reports David Price is headed to Detroit.

3:50pm- Yankees send “top prospect” Kelly Johnson to Boston for Drew. Advice to Boston, ask him to leave his glove in New York.

3:51pm- This is almost like if DiMaggio had been traded for Williams!

3:54pm- In all seriousness, I don’t think Kelly Johnson can be traded as he is on the DL so I think the trade will be PTBNL for Drew. Either way, this is a salary dump by Boston as Johnson makes $3-million and Drew makes $10-million

3:55pm- Jon Heyman reporting Austin Jackson and Drew Smyly are in Price trade. Seattle is the third team, but who is going where is unclear.

3:57pm- Austin Jackson was in a game and had to be removed because of Price trade.

3:58pm- Ken Rosenthal reports Austin Jackson to Seattle, Nick Franklin to Tampa and Smyly to Tampa as well. Also, the Phillies will not be making a trade today.

4:03pm- So this probably means Max Scherzer and Jon Lester will be free agents after this season.

4:06pm- Buster Olney points out the last three AL Cy Young winners are now in the same rotation (Verlander, Price, Scherzer)

4:08pm- Jon Heyman says Seattle is only trading Nick Franklin to Tampa as part of the Price trade. The rest of the players are coming from Detroit.

4:11pm- Jack Curry reporting the Yankees have acquired Martin Prado from Arizona.

4:13pm- Heyman confirms Prado move. Have to figure this is the end of Brian Roberts.

4:16pm- Curious as to what the Yankees gave up for Prado. He is signed through 2016 at $11-million per.

4:19pm- Yankees reportedly trading Peter O’Brien for Prado. Not sure I like that, but need to think about it a bit.

4:22pm-Yankees are getting cash from Boston for the Drew trade.

4:26pm- So thinking a bit more about Prado. Besides 2014 position question, where does he play in 2015 and 2016?

4:29pm- I’m ok with the O’Brien trade. 33HR’s in A/AA this year, but reportedly huge holes in his swing. 20BB/106K’s this year confirm that.

So, I think that’s it. A more exciting trade deadline than last year that’s for sure. Andy will be sharing his thoughts on the Red Sox moves shortly and I will recap the Yankees’ moves tomorrow.

4:40pm- One last update, Mark Feinsand reports that Brian Roberts will be DFA’ed.

The Red Sox New Beginning?

It’s being reported that the Red Sox have traded Felix Doubront. There are also rumors of them entertaining offers for Jon Lester and John Lackey.

I can understand trading Doubront as he seems to be a bit of a malcontent. But moving both Lester and Lackey, your respective one and two starters, means the Red Sox are apparently in overhaul mode.

Today ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote that he hopes the Red Sox have a Plan B. He couldn’t be more correct, the Red Sox are basically trying to unload 3/5 of their starting rotation (Felix started the year in the rotation) and if they also move Clay Buchholz, make it 4/5 (he’s the one starter I really won’t miss if he is moved).

Who’s going to start for the next year? One rumor has the Red Sox pursuing the Philidelphia Phillies Cole Hamels. I asked why not just re-sign Jon Lester? You know he can pitch in the American League East, and he’s a known quantity. And it won’t take any draft picks to sign him.

To echo Buster Olney, I really do hope they know what they’re doing.